Pierini et al. (2026) Framework for global emulation of extreme precipitation along global warming trajectories

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-15
• Authors: Lorenzo Pierini, Lukas Gudmundsson, Yann Quentin Yves Quilcaille, Sonia I Seneviratne
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fad

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

The study introduces a climate emulator within the MESMER-X framework designed to generate spatially resolved time series of annual maximum daily precipitation conditioned on global mean temperature trajectories.

Objective

• To develop a computationally efficient tool for the probabilistic exploration of rare and unprecedented extreme precipitation events across various warming trajectories to support climate risk assessments.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and regional.
• Temporal Scale: Annual (focusing on annual maximum daily precipitation).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MESMER-X framework (climate emulator).
• Data sources: CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models.

Main Results

• The emulator faithfully replicates the key statistical properties, natural variability, spatial patterns, and global warming responses of the CMIP6 models.
• The framework successfully incorporates dedicated treatments for arid-region behavior (where maxima approach zero) and heavy-tailed tropical extremes to ensure data consistency.

Contributions

• Provides a high-efficiency alternative to Earth system models, allowing for large-ensemble simulations at a fraction of the computational cost.
• Facilitates the link between emission scenarios and precipitation extremes, enabling rapid policy-relevant assessments of heavy precipitation risks.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Pierini2026Framework,
  author = {Pierini, Lorenzo and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Quilcaille, Yann Quentin Yves and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
  title = {Framework for global emulation of extreme precipitation along global warming trajectories},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fad},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fad}
}