Wang et al. (2026) Mechanisms of the record-breaking winter–spring drought over South China in 2024–2025

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-30
• Authors: Leying Wang, Wen Chen, Shangfeng Chen, Zhibiao Wang
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8461

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education
• State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
• School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University

Short Summary

This study investigates the unprecedented winter–spring drought in South China during 2024/2025, attributing its persistence to atmospheric circulation anomalies and tropical SST warming.

Objective

• Investigate the causes and mechanisms behind the severe drought event in South China during 2024/2025.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional-scale analysis focused on South China.
• Temporal Scale: Winter–spring season (November to April) with a focus on the 2024/2025 event.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Numerical experiments using a regional climate model.
• Data sources: Observational data from satellite, surface weather stations, and reanalysis products.

Main Results

• The drought was linked to persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies extending from winter into spring.
• Anomalous northerly winds transported cold and dry air from higher latitudes into South China.
• A pronounced subsidence suppressed local convective activity, reinforcing drought persistence.
• Numerical experiments demonstrated that tropical SST warming anomalies enhanced the regional Hadley circulation.

Contributions

• This study highlights the important contribution of tropical SST anomalies in regional-scale extreme drought events.
• The findings provide valuable insights for improving prediction and risk management of similar extremes in a warming climate.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42175059)
• Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Change and Disaster Prevention Research

Citation

@article{Wang2026Mechanisms,
  author = {Wang, Leying and Chen, Wen and Chen, Shangfeng and Wang, Zhibiao},
  title = {Mechanisms of the record-breaking winter–spring drought over South China in 2024–2025},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8461},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8461}
}