Upadhyay et al. (2026) Evaluating frequency of low reservoir storage in the western U.S. over the 21st century

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Surabhi Upadhyay, Adrienne M. Marshall, Nathalie Voisin, Daniel Broman
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae84ed

Research Groups

• University of California, Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Water Management Division

Short Summary

This study assesses the projected changes in low storage frequency and near-minimum-power-pool risk across 94 western U.S. reservoirs under future climate scenarios using a calibrated offline hedging release model.

Objective

• Investigate the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of projected low storage responses and near-MPP exposure across western U.S. hydropower reservoirs.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western United States, focusing on 94 reservoirs.
• Temporal Scale: Future climate scenarios (projected reservoir inflows) spanning multiple decades.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Offline hedging release model driven by projected reservoir inflows under future climate scenarios.
• Data sources: Reservoir inflow projections from climate models, calibrated against historical data.

Main Results

• Projected low storage frequency declines in many future simulations across the ensemble.
• Near-MPP exposure remains limited for most reservoirs, with some regional and seasonal differences emerging.
• LSF is more strongly associated with precipitation than temperature, with drier years producing elevated risk across nearly every reservoir.

Contributions

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of projected low storage frequency and near-MPP risk across western U.S. hydropower reservoirs under future climate scenarios, highlighting the importance of considering regional and seasonal differences in vulnerability assessments.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #1850449: "Climate-driven Hydropower Vulnerability Assessments"
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Water Management Division Research Program

Citation

@article{Upadhyay2026Evaluating,
  author = {Upadhyay, Surabhi and Marshall, Adrienne M. and Voisin, Nathalie and Broman, Daniel},
  title = {Evaluating frequency of low reservoir storage in the western U.S. over the 21st century},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae84ed},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae84ed}
}