Straffelini et al. (2026) Emerging climate constraints for olive cultivation in Europe under CMIP6 projections

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-09
• Authors: Eugenio Straffelini, Massimiliano Nicola Lippa, Paolo Tarolli
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae886c

Research Groups

• Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna
• Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission

Short Summary

This study translates CMIP6 multi-model data into agroclimatic indicators to assess future climate impacts on olive groves across Europe. The results show a complex pattern of exposure to hot, dry, frosty, and humid conditions, highlighting areas where adaptation assessments may be prioritized.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of future climate change on agroclimatic threshold events associated with major olive stressors in European olive groves

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Europe (pan-European)
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1984–2014), near-term future (2020–2050), and long-term future (2070–2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 multi-model data (downscaled to daily resolution)
• Data sources: Daily downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

Main Results

• Strong increase in hot dry days (HDD) across Europe, with an average of 24.6 d and 70.5 d in the near-term and long-term future, respectively.
• Decrease in frost days (FTD) and chill days (CHD), indicating warmer dormancy conditions and emerging chilling limitations.
• Warm humid days (WHD) generally decrease, indicating lower climatic suitability for the olive fruit fly.

Contributions

• This study provides a reproducible, pan-European screening to identify areas where adaptation assessments may be prioritized.
• The results highlight the need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and pest management strategies in European olive groves.

Funding

• Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (Grant Agreement No. 776810)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant Agreement No. 101004580)

Citation

@article{Straffelini2026Emerging,
  author = {Straffelini, Eugenio and Lippa, Massimiliano Nicola and Tarolli, Paolo},
  title = {Emerging climate constraints for olive cultivation in Europe under CMIP6 projections},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae886c},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae886c}
}