Yao et al. (2026) Large-scale circulation-conditioned attribution of the historic 2024 Spanish extreme precipitation

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-15
• Authors: Mengyuan Yao, Haosu Tang, Gang Huang, Jun Wang
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b05

Research Groups

• Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC)
• Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Valencia

Short Summary

This study investigates the exceptional 24 h precipitation total of 771 mm recorded in Turís, Spain on 29 October 2024, and attributes it to a combination of atmospheric circulation variability and anthropogenic warming. The research reveals that internal dynamics play a crucial role in shaping Mediterranean precipitation extremes.

Objective

• Investigate the dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms driving exceptional precipitation events in the Mediterranean region

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Mediterranean basin)
• Temporal Scale: Event-based (October–November 2024)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: HadGEM3-A-N216 large-ensemble model
• Data sources: Multi-source high-resolution precipitation observations, circulation analog analysis

Main Results

• The exceptional precipitation was initiated by an anomalously deep upper-level cut-off low over southern Spain.
• Circulation analog analysis reveals that pre-trough dynamics explain ∼31% (interquartile range: 7%–44%) of the maximum daily precipitation across eastern Spain during October–November 2024.
• Large-ensemble attribution using the HadGEM3-A-N216 model confirms the crucial role of internal dynamics, accounting for approximately one-third of the total anomaly.

Contributions

This study highlights the importance of atmospheric circulation variability in shaping Mediterranean precipitation extremes and emphasizes the need for explicitly accounting for circulation variability in event attribution and future regional flood risk assessment.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2020-113234GB-I00) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ERC Grant Agreement No. 101031799).

Citation

@article{Yao2026Largescale,
  author = {Yao, Mengyuan and Tang, Haosu and Huang, Gang and Wang, Jun},
  title = {Large-scale circulation-conditioned attribution of the historic 2024 Spanish extreme precipitation},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b05},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b05}
}