Pérez‐Zanón et al. (2026) Towards a sub-seasonal climate forecast service for extreme precipitation associated with cut-off lows: insights from the Valencia 2024 event

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-15
• Authors: Núria Pérez‐Zanón, Diego Alvaro Campos, Ramiro I. Saurral, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Albert Soret
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b06

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Valencia
• National Weather Service (NWS)

Short Summary

This study evaluates sub-seasonal forecasts of accumulated precipitation and large-scale atmospheric conditions for a cut-off low (COL) event in Valencia, highlighting the potential of forecast products to support earlier anticipation of high-impact precipitation events.

Objective

• Investigate the predictability of COLs at sub-seasonal timescales using various forecast product definitions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale over the Iberian Peninsula
• Temporal Scale: Sub-seasonal (up to two weeks)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified, but likely based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models
• Data sources: Forecast products from operational NWP models

Main Results

• The odds ratio forecast product provided consistent indications of increased likelihood of COL prediction up to two weeks in advance.
• However, the Brier Skill Score showed limited and often non-significant skill at longer lead times.
• No clear signal was evident earlier than one week in advance.

Contributions

• This study highlights the potential of the odds ratio forecast product definition to complement precipitation forecasts for COL events.
• The results suggest that these products could support earlier preparedness when co-designed with end-users, especially in regions prone to damaging precipitation from COLs.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{PérezZanón2026Towards,
  author = {Pérez‐Zanón, Núria and Campos, Diego Alvaro and Saurral, Ramiro I. and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Javier and Soret, Albert},
  title = {Towards a sub-seasonal climate forecast service for extreme precipitation associated with cut-off lows: insights from the Valencia 2024 event},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b06},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8b06}
}