Dobson et al. (2026) Evaluating kilometre-scale statistical downscaling of daily climate extremes in Ecuador’s complex terrain: performance, limitations and implications for impact studies

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-20
• Authors: Rachel Dobson, Christine Howard, Stephen G. Willis
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8d3f

Research Groups

• Department of Climate Science, University of Ecuador
• Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of the ISIMIP3BASD framework for generating high-resolution climate datasets over Ecuador, a region with complex terrain and strong ENSO-driven variability. The results highlight the strengths and limitations of using downscaled climate data for various applications.

Objective

• To assess the capability of the ISIMIP3BASD framework to generate accurate daily temperature and precipitation datasets at 1 km resolution over Ecuador.
• To evaluate the performance of the downscaled data in reproducing spatial climatology, temporal variability, and extreme climate indices.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Daily temperature and precipitation datasets generated at 1 km resolution for the entire country of Ecuador.
• Temporal Scale: Data evaluated for the period 2005–2014, with mid-century projections (2050s) under SSP2-4.5 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ISIMIP3BASD framework applied to daily temperature and precipitation from 15 CMIP6 models.
• Data sources: CHELSA-W5E5 reference dataset, station observations, and reanalysis data.

Main Results

• The downscaled data reproduce spatial gradients and seasonal cycles well, with strongest skill at monthly to annual timescales.
• Station-based evaluation indicates weak anomaly skill, particularly for precipitation, showing limited ability to reproduce local variability and event sequencing.
• Performance is highest for extremes defined by absolute thresholds, whereas percentile-based extremes are less reliably captured.

Contributions

This study contributes to the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of high-resolution downscaled climate data in observationally sparse regions. The results highlight the importance of considering the strengths and weaknesses of downscaled data when selecting suitable datasets for specific applications.

Funding

• This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the project "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources" (grant number 01LP1901).
• Additional funding provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment, Water, and Ecological Transition.

Citation

@article{Dobson2026Evaluating,
  author = {Dobson, Rachel and Howard, Christine and Willis, Stephen G.},
  title = {Evaluating kilometre-scale statistical downscaling of daily climate extremes in Ecuador’s complex terrain: performance, limitations and implications for impact studies},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8d3f},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8d3f}
}