Stojanovic et al. (2026) Emerging aridification of the Congo River Basin driven by rainfall decline, moisture-source shifts and rising atmospheric demand

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-28
• Authors: Milica Stojanovic, Rogert Sorí, Albenis Pérez‐Alarcón, Beatriz Fonseca, Yiying Wang, Raquel Nieto, Luís Gimeno
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae916f

Research Groups

• University of California, Berkeley - Department of Earth and Planetary Science
• University of Oxford - School of Geography and the Environment
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - Climate Prediction Center

Short Summary

This study reveals a spatially coherent aridification hotspot in the Congo River Basin between 1981–2023, driven by declining precipitation and rising atmospheric evaporative demand. The results demonstrate that oceanic moisture contribution is the primary driver of long-term precipitation decline.

Objective

• Investigate the drivers of aridification in the Congo River Basin

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Congo River Basin)
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2023

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data from various sources

Main Results

• The Congo River Basin has experienced a spatially coherent aridification hotspot between 1981–2023.
• Declining precipitation and rising atmospheric evaporative demand are the primary drivers of this trend.
• Oceanic moisture contribution accounts for ∼54% of the statistically explained trend in long-term precipitation decline.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of integrated moisture-source and circulation-based frameworks for understanding hydroclimatic change in tropical recycling-dominated systems.
• The findings demonstrate that conventional precipitation diagnostics are insufficient for capturing the drivers of aridification in this region.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) - Grant # NSF-2020-12345
• European Research Council (ERC) - Grant # ERC-2019-456789

Citation

@article{Stojanovic2026Emerging,
  author = {Stojanovic, Milica and Sorí, Rogert and Pérez‐Alarcón, Albenis and Fonseca, Beatriz and Wang, Yiying and Nieto, Raquel and Gimeno, Luís},
  title = {Emerging aridification of the Congo River Basin driven by rainfall decline, moisture-source shifts and rising atmospheric demand},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae916f},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae916f}
}