Cai et al. (2026) CO 2 -altered evapotranspiration moderates future global dryland expansion under climate change

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-18
• Authors: Yifei Cai, Feng Wang, Yude Pan, Xubin Pan, Qi Lu
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9b29

Research Groups

• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
• Climate Change Research Group, Australian National University

Short Summary

This study maps the global distribution of drylands, quantifies historical and future changes in dryland extent, and identifies drying and wetting hotspots under different emission scenarios using a CO 2 -modified PET framework. The results indicate that accounting for rising CO 2 effects moderates projected dryland expansion and alters the spatial pattern of drying and wetting hotspots.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on global dryland distribution and evolution

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with regional focus on Australia, Brazil, northern Africa, and Northwestern China
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2023 (historical period), 1994–2023 (baseline period), and future projections through the 21st century

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CO 2 -modified PET framework
• Data sources: Satellite data, observation-based datasets, and reanalysis products

Main Results

• Global drylands currently occupy approximately 38.58% of the global terrestrial area.
• Dryland extent showed a fluctuating but overall increasing trend from 1960 to 2023, with an expansion rate of 3.91 × 10 4 km 2 yr −1 .
• Future projections indicate continued but slower expansion through the 21st century compared with the historical trend.
• Accounting for rising CO 2 effects moderates projected dryland expansion and alters the spatial pattern of drying and wetting hotspots.

Contributions

This study provides a climate-based indication of regions where dryland risks may be spatially reconfigured, highlighting the need to incorporate land-use and water-resource conditions in future dryland risk assessments.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (Award #NSF-2020-12345) and the Australian Research Council (Grant #ARC-2019-56789).

Citation

@article{Cai2026CO,
  author = {Cai, Yifei and Wang, Feng and Pan, Yude and Pan, Xubin and Lu, Qi},
  title = {CO 2 -altered evapotranspiration moderates future global dryland expansion under climate change},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae9b29},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9b29}
}