Brunner et al. (2026) The variability atlas: how internal climate variability affects the estimation of climate extreme indices

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-18
• Authors: Lukas Brunner, Varun Mithal, Leonard Borchert, Jana Sillmann, Benjamin Poschlod
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9c57

Research Groups

• Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of internal climate variability on extreme temperature and precipitation events, using a 50-member ensemble from the MPI-ESM global climate model.

Objective

• Investigate the effect of internal climate variability on the estimation of climate extremes as captured by ETCCDI indices.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale with regional focus.
• Temporal Scale: Period 1995–2014.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MPI-ESM global climate model (50-member ensemble).
• Data sources: ETCCDI indices, temperature, and precipitation data from the MPI-ESM simulations.

Main Results

• Internal climate variability significantly impacts the assessment of extreme temperature and precipitation events.
• The Variability Atlas interactive online interface allows users to investigate the effect of internal variability for flexible case-specific scenarios.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the role of internal climate variability in shaping climate extremes, complementing existing work on this topic.
• The introduction of the Variability Atlas offers practical guidance and tools for users to assess the impact of internal variability on their specific cases.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Brunner2026variability,
  author = {Brunner, Lukas and Mithal, Varun and Borchert, Leonard and Sillmann, Jana and Poschlod, Benjamin},
  title = {The variability atlas: how internal climate variability affects the estimation of climate extreme indices},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae9c57},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9c57}
}