Petrova et al. (2026) ENSO-driven climatic and vegetation changes in Amazonia by the end of the century

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Desislava Petrova, Ceren Ekinci, Ivana Cvijanović, Vassil Tzanov, Patricia Tarín‐Carrasco, Xavier Rodó
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aea585

Research Groups

• Amazon Institute of Environmental Studies (INPE)
• University of California, Berkeley

Short Summary

This study investigates future climate and vegetation changes in the Amazon driven by El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations. The results suggest that the southwestern region will become highly vulnerable to temperature and precipitation impacts linked to ENSO.

Objective

• Investigate future climate and vegetation changes in Amazonia driven by ENSO

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional, focusing on the Amazon rainforest
• Temporal Scale: Future projections (end of 21st century)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 model simulations, including dynamic vegetation models
• Data sources: Global climate reanalysis data

Main Results

• The southwestern region will become highly vulnerable to temperature and precipitation impacts linked to ENSO in the future.
• Projected temperature increases of up to 9 °C and decreased precipitation of up to 120 mm/month associated with El Niño by the end of the century.
• Expected tree fraction reductions of up to 15% according to CMIP6 model ensemble, and up to 26% according to dynamic vegetation models alone.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the potential impacts of ENSO on future climate and vegetation changes in Amazonia, highlighting the need for regional-scale assessments to inform conservation and management strategies.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant # NSF-AGS-180222) and the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).

Citation

@article{Petrova2026ENSOdriven,
  author = {Petrova, Desislava and Ekinci, Ceren and Cvijanović, Ivana and Tzanov, Vassil and Tarín‐Carrasco, Patricia and Rodó, Xavier},
  title = {ENSO-driven climatic and vegetation changes in Amazonia by the end of the century},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aea585},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea585}
}