Muccioli et al. (2026) Compound atmospheric phenomena driving Antarctic mean and extreme precipitation

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Marco Muccioli, Priscilla Mooney, Andreas Franz Prein
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aea588

Research Groups

• British Antarctic Survey (BAS)
• University of Reading, Department of Meteorology
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Short Summary

This study assesses the combined effects of atmospheric phenomena on Antarctica's hydroclimate by applying a novel analysis framework to ERA5 reanalysis data. The results reveal that extreme precipitation events are rarely driven by single phenomena, but rather involve co-occurring systems.

Objective

• Investigate the interaction and joint contributions of synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena (atmospheric rivers, mid-level cyclones, anticyclones, atmospheric fronts, and upper-level jets) to mean and extreme precipitation in Antarctica.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale analysis over Antarctica, with a focus on coastal and near-coastal regions.
• Temporal Scale: 20-year period (2001–2020) of ERA5 reanalysis data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-Object Analysis of Atmospheric Phenomena (MOAAP) algorithm applied to ERA5 reanalysis data.
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis product provided by the ECMWF.

Main Results

• Mean and extreme precipitation in Antarctica are linked to broadly the same synoptic-scale systems, with cyclones showing the strongest association throughout the analysis domain.
• Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a disproportionately large role at the highest precipitation intensities, consistent with their ability to deliver concentrated moisture streams to the Antarctic coastline.
• Extreme events are rarely driven by single phenomena acting in isolation, with the majority involving two or more co-occurring systems.

Contributions

• Provides a unified framework for quantifying the individual and joint contributions of synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena to mean and extreme precipitation in Antarctica.
• Highlights the importance of evaluating potential changes in co-occurrence patterns among these systems for future projections of Antarctic precipitation extremes.

Funding

• NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) grant NE/R000088/1
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 776186

Citation

@article{Muccioli2026Compound,
  author = {Muccioli, Marco and Mooney, Priscilla and Prein, Andreas Franz},
  title = {Compound atmospheric phenomena driving Antarctic mean and extreme precipitation},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aea588},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea588}
}