Lee et al. (2026) Attribution and projection of February extreme rainfall events in Southeast Africa

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-15
• Authors: Donghyun Lee, Carol Sirou Chen, Paulo Ceppi, Friederike E. L. Otto, In‐Hong Park, Nicholas James Leach, Sarah Sparrow, Myles Allen
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aea7b9

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Branch, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
• International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing on extreme rainfall events in Southeast Africa (SEAF), using multiple Earth System Model (ESM) ensembles and numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiments. The results indicate that GHG forcing significantly increases the risk of such events.

Objective

• Investigate the attribution of record-breaking extreme rainfall events in SEAF to anthropogenic climate change, specifically focusing on the role of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale over Southeast Africa (SEAF)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly and seasonal time scales

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple Earth System Model (ESM) ensembles, including CESM1.2-FV2 and EC-Earth3-Veg; numerical weather prediction (NWP) experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
• Data sources: Observational data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC); reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Main Results

• GHG forcing significantly increases the risk of extreme rainfall events in SEAF, with a 70% increase in the probability of once-in-70-year events and a 150% increase in the probability of once-in-150-year events.
• Aerosol (AER) influences on these events remain uncertain due to disagreements among ESMs.
• Future projections under various shared socioeconomic pathways indicate that higher GHG emissions exacerbate these risks.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the attribution and projection of extreme rainfall events in SEAF, highlighting the critical role of GHG forcing in elevating these risks.
• The results demonstrate the importance of considering both ESM and NWP simulations when assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #1735913: "Attribution and Projection of Extreme Weather Events"
• European Research Council (ERC) Grant #725546: "Climate Extremes in a Changing World"

Citation

@article{Lee2026Attribution,
  author = {Lee, Donghyun and Chen, Carol Sirou and Ceppi, Paulo and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Park, In‐Hong and Leach, Nicholas James and Sparrow, Sarah and Allen, Myles},
  title = {Attribution and projection of February extreme rainfall events in Southeast Africa},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aea7b9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea7b9}
}