Chen et al. (2026) Coupled drought–land use dynamics and agricultural resilience in mainland Southeast Asia

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Anping Chen, Alan D. Ziegler, Stephen Joseph Leisz, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Edwin K. P. Chong
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aea91b

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, University of Natural Sciences
• Mekong River Commission Secretariat
• Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA)

Short Summary

This study examines the coupled socio-ecological processes driving drought development and consequences in Mainland Southeast Asia, highlighting the need for coordinated investment in data integration, context-appropriate land and water interventions, and inclusive basin-scale governance.

Objective

• Investigate the interactions between climatic anomalies, land use, water infrastructure, resource management, and governance in shaping drought propagation through hydrological, agricultural, and livelihood systems in Mainland Southeast Asia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term variability and changes between a historical baseline (1902–1979) and the recent period (2000–2023)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12) data for hydroclimatic analysis
• Data sources: Historical climate records, satellite observations, reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• Long-term variability in mean water balance and moderate-drought frequency shows spatially heterogeneous changes between the historical baseline and recent period.
• Hydroclimatic conditions interact with land use, water infrastructure development, resource management, and governance to buffer or intensify drought impacts.

Contributions

• Provides a transferable framework for understanding and managing drought in regions where climatic variability interacts with rapid land-use change, water infrastructure development, and uneven governance.
• Highlights the need for coordinated investment in data integration, context-appropriate land and water interventions, and inclusive basin-scale governance to sustain agrarian and aquatic economies.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) through the "Mekong Water Resources Management Project" (MRCP/2018/01).
• Additional support was provided by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) under the "Regional Rice Research and Development Program" (RRRDP/2020/001).

Citation

@article{Chen2026Coupled,
  author = {Chen, Anping and Ziegler, Alan D. and Leisz, Stephen Joseph and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Chong, Edwin K. P.},
  title = {Coupled drought–land use dynamics and agricultural resilience in mainland Southeast Asia},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aea91b},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea91b}
}