Vishwakarma et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal shifts in composite weather stress across US croplands

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-28
• Authors: Srishti Vishwakarma, Moetasim Ashfaq, Rebecca Ann Efroymson, Peter E. Thornton
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aead01

Research Groups

• University of California, Berkeley: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Climate Prediction Center
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA): Economic Research Service

Short Summary

This study introduces a multi-stressor framework to quantify compound weather stress across the Contiguous United States, linking it to county-scale crop yield anomalies. The framework reveals increasing weather stress divergence and declining similarity with historical baselines.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between compound weather stress and agricultural productivity in the United States.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental United States (CONUS)
• Temporal Scale: 1980 to 2023

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ)-specific weighted averaging scheme, spatiotemporal analog tracking approach
• Data sources: Historical climate data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, county-scale crop yield anomalies from USDA's Economic Research Service

Main Results

• The proposed framework identifies increasing weather stress divergence and declining similarity with historical baselines across CONUS croplands.
• Compound drought and extreme heat are the primary drivers of increased weather stress divergence.
• Weather stress similarity declined in many agricultural regions, highlighting a growing loss of correspondence between current weather regimes and historical baselines.

Contributions

• The study provides a systematic, region-specific approach to benchmark compound weather stress exposure and support agricultural risk assessment and planning from farm to national scales.
• The framework links compound weather stress to measurable components of interannual crop yield variability.

Funding

• This research was supported by the USDA's National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) under award number 2020-67021-31020, and the NOAA Climate Program Office under award number NA19OAR4310166.

Citation

@article{Vishwakarma2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Vishwakarma, Srishti and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Efroymson, Rebecca Ann and Thornton, Peter E.},
  title = {Spatiotemporal shifts in composite weather stress across US croplands},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aead01},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aead01}
}