Comia (2026) Drought analysis in Pemba district, northern Mozambique (1991 – 2023) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-26
• Authors: Heráclito Rodrigues Comia
• DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ae4aff

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study provides the first comprehensive characterization of drought patterns in the Pemba district, northern Mozambique, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from satellite precipitation data, revealing 12 distinct drought episodes over 33 years with significant inter-annual variability.

Objective

• To provide the first comprehensive characterization of drought patterns in the Pemba district, Cabo Delgado Province, northern Mozambique, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pemba district, Cabo Delgado Province, northern Mozambique.
• Temporal Scale: 33 years (1991-2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated using DrinC software at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12-month time scales, following the standard gamma distribution methodology recommended by the World Meteorological Organization.
• Data sources: NASA POWER satellite-derived monthly total precipitation data.

Main Results

• The region experienced 12 distinct drought episodes at the 12-month scale over the study period.
• The most severe drought event occurred in February 2006 (SPI-12 = −2.59), categorized as extremely dry.
• The longest drought episode lasted 12 months (February 2009 to January 2010) with a minimum SPI-12 of −2.23.
• Extreme drought conditions (SPI ≤ −2.0) were observed in 2.9% of months.
• Normal conditions (−0.99 to 0.99) prevailed in 72.5% of the study period.
• The mean annual precipitation was 1,037.1 mm, with a coefficient of variation of 27.1%, indicating substantial inter-annual variability.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive characterization of drought patterns in the Pemba district, northern Mozambique.
• Establishes critical baseline information for the development of drought early warning systems, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation strategies in the region.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Comia2026Drought,
  author = {Comia, Heráclito Rodrigues},
  title = {Drought analysis in Pemba district, northern Mozambique (1991 – 2023) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)},
  journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ae4aff},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae4aff}
}