Santos et al. (2026) Thermal Amplification of Drought and Hydroclimatic Regime Shift in the Pantanal Wetland

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-28
• Authors: Luiz Octávio Fabrício dos Santos, Marcelo Sacardi Bíudes, Hatim M. E. Geli, Lucas Barros‐Rosa, Leone Francisco Amorim Curado, Carlos Alexandre Santos Querino, Juliane Kayse Albuquerque da Silva Querino, Nadja Gomes Machado
• DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/aead0e

Research Groups

• Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
• University of São Paulo (USP)

Short Summary

This study investigates the increasing hydroclimatic stress in the Pantanal wetland under warming conditions, finding that drought dynamics are becoming thermally amplified.

Objective

• Investigate whether drought dynamics in the Pantanal are becoming increasingly thermally amplified

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans 1980–2022 and includes CMIP6 projections up to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 climate models
• Data sources:
  • Reanalysis data (1980–2022)
  • SPEI-12 drought index
  • Climate-extreme indices
  • Random Forest analysis
  • Land-cover and surface-water changes

Main Results

• Warm-day frequency (TX90p) showed the strongest bivariate relationship with SPEI-12 across all Pantanal sectors (R² = 0.68–0.71).
• CMIP6 projections indicate TX90p increases under all scenarios.
• The TX90p–SPEI-12 relationship becomes more coherent under SSP245 and especially SSP585.

Contributions

This study provides original insights into the thermally amplified drought dynamics in the Pantanal, highlighting the importance of integrating temperature extremes, precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and surface-water persistence for monitoring and adaptation.

Funding

• This research was supported by the following projects:
  • FAPESP (São Paulo Research Foundation)
  • CNPq (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)

Citation

@article{Santos2026Thermal,
  author = {Santos, Luiz Octávio Fabrício dos and Bíudes, Marcelo Sacardi and Geli, Hatim M. E. and Barros‐Rosa, Lucas and Curado, Leone Francisco Amorim and Querino, Carlos Alexandre Santos and Querino, Juliane Kayse Albuquerque da Silva and Machado, Nadja Gomes},
  title = {Thermal Amplification of Drought and Hydroclimatic Regime Shift in the Pantanal Wetland},
  journal = {Environmental Research Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/aead0e},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aead0e}
}