Yalcin et al. (2026) Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Hydropower Production and Water Supply in the Mediterranean Hotspot

Identification

• Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
• Year: 2026
• Authors: Emrah Yalcin, Cansu Boz
• DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.70084

Research Groups

• CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France.
• METIS (Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interaction dans les Hydrosystèmes et les Sols), Sorbonne Université, CNRS, EPHE, Paris, France.

Short Summary

The study presents the development and validation of SIM2, a high-resolution (8,000 m) hydrometeorological dataset for metropolitan France covering the period from 1958 to 2018. By coupling the SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis with the SURFEX/ISBA-CTRIP modeling chain, the authors provide a consistent 60-year reconstruction of the French water cycle.

Objective

• To produce a long-term, spatially continuous, and physically consistent high-resolution dataset of land surface variables (soil moisture, snowpack, fluxes) and river discharge to support climate change impact studies and water resource management in France.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Metropolitan France (approximately 550,000 km²) on a regular grid with a resolution of 8,000 m.
• Temporal Scale: 60 years (August 1958 to July 2018) with hourly and daily output frequencies.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SURFEX/ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) land surface model using a multi-layer soil diffusion scheme, and the CTRIP (CNRM Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) routing model with groundwater coupling.
• Data sources: SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis (providing precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind, and radiation based on surface observations) and observed river discharge data from the French national "Banque Hydro" for validation.

Main Results

• Validation against more than 600 gauging stations demonstrates high performance, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for daily discharge exceeding 0.65.
• The implementation of the multi-layer soil diffusion scheme in ISBA significantly improved the representation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration compared to the previous force-restore version.
• The dataset successfully captures multi-decadal variability and historical hydrological extremes, including major droughts (e.g., 1976, 1989, 2003) and significant flood events.
• Snow depth and snow water equivalent simulations show high correlation with mountain observations, benefiting from the high-resolution SAFRAN forcing.

Contributions

• Provides the first 60-year, high-resolution (8,000 m) consistent hydrometeorological reanalysis for the entirety of metropolitan France.
• Demonstrates the feasibility and added value of integrating advanced land surface physics (diffusion-based soil modeling) and interactive routing at a national scale for long-term climate applications.
• Serves as a reference dataset for the "Explore 2" project and other climate service initiatives in Europe.

Funding

• Météo-France.
• Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS).
• Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) project C3S311bLot4.
• Explore 2 project.

Citation

@article{Yalcin2026Assessing,
  author = {Yalcin, Emrah and Boz, Cansu},
  title = {Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Hydropower Production and Water Supply in the Mediterranean Hotspot},
  journal = {JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1111/1752-1688.70084},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70084}
}

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