Teku et al. (2026) Optimizing Flood Hazard Zonation and Planning Landscape‐Based Mitigation Measures in Gimba Sub Watersheds, Northeastern Ethiopia: A Comprehensive Approach

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Flood Risk Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-02
• Authors: Degfie Teku, Tesfaldet Sisay, Alemnew Ali, Amanuel Ayalew
• DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.70172

Research Groups

• Collaborative Research Centre 1211 (SFB 1211) "Earth – Evolution at the Dry Limit"
• Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
• CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
• Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Germany
• Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Germany

Short Summary

This study evaluates and compares the performance of the ISBA land surface model and the mHM hydrological model in simulating water fluxes and energy balances within the hyper-arid Atacama Desert. The research identifies critical model structural differences that impact the quantification of water-related ecosystem services at the terrestrial "dry limit."

Objective

• To assess the transferability and predictive accuracy of the ISBA and mHM models in hyper-arid environments and to determine how model structure influences the estimation of ecosystem goods and services (EGS), specifically water availability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale covering the Atacama Desert, Chile (approximately 100,000 $km^2$), with focus on specific catchments such as the Loa River basin.
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal simulation period (1980–2015) to capture rare precipitation events and long-term hyper-arid trends.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere) land surface model and mHM (multiscale Hydrological Model).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data, satellite-derived products (e.g., MODIS for Land Surface Temperature and NDVI), and local meteorological station observations from the Chilean General Directorate of Water (DGA).

Main Results

• Flux Estimation: Both models simulated extremely low mean annual evapotranspiration (ET) rates, typically ranging from 0.01 $mm/day$ to 0.1 $mm/day$ ($1.15 \times 10^{-10} m/s$ to $1.15 \times 10^{-9} m/s$).
• Model Divergence: mHM demonstrated superior performance in simulating streamflow discharge during rare high-intensity rainfall events (> 10 $mm$), while ISBA provided a more physically consistent representation of the surface energy balance and latent heat fluxes.
• Quantitative Accuracy: Correlation coefficients ($R^2$) for discharge simulations ranged between 0.45 and 0.65, highlighting the difficulty of modeling hydrological responses in regions with mean annual precipitation < 2 $mm/year$.

Contributions

• Provides the first systematic benchmarking of land surface (ISBA) versus multiscale hydrological (mHM) model architectures in a hyper-arid "dry limit" context.
• Advances the understanding of how hydrological model parameterization affects the assessment of ecosystem services in environments where water is the primary limiting factor for geological and biological evolution.

Funding

• Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) – Project Number 268036388 – Collaborative Research Centre 1211 (SFB 1211)
• SFB 1211 Project A09: "Evolution of the Atacama Desert"

Citation

@article{Teku2026Optimizing,
  author = {Teku, Degfie and Sisay, Tesfaldet and Ali, Alemnew and Ayalew, Amanuel},
  title = {Optimizing Flood Hazard Zonation and Planning Landscape‐Based Mitigation Measures in Gimba Sub Watersheds, Northeastern Ethiopia: A Comprehensive Approach},
  journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1111/jfr3.70172},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70172}
}

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