Xue et al. (2026) Extraordinary Tibetan Plateau early-winter heating drove record-breaking winter precipitation in California and adjacent regions

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Science Advances
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-09
• Authors: Yongkang Xue, Qian Li, William K. M. Lau, J. David Neelin, Xubin Zeng, Yang Zhang, Shuting Li, Xianghui Kong, Bin Guan, Aaron Anthony Boone, Zhijiong Cao, Aihui Wang, Yan Fang Pan, Qi Tang, Hara Prasad Nayak
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aeg3577

Research Groups

• University of California, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

Short Summary

This study reveals that anomalous early-winter heating over the Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in driving extreme precipitation events in California during La Niña conditions. The results suggest that high-elevation terrestrial temperature anomalies can be used as a predictive source for subseasonal to seasonal winter extreme hydroclimate events.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between Tibetan Plateau temperature anomalies and extreme precipitation events in California

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (California and adjacent regions) and global (Tibetan Plateau, northeastern Pacific, and western coast of North America)
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal to seasonal (winter months)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Earth system model experiments (control simulation and sensitivity experiment with improved temperature initialization over the Tibetan Plateau)
• Data sources: Observational analyses from satellite and surface weather stations

Main Results

• Anomalous early-winter heating over the Tibetan Plateau modulated a Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain wave train, affecting atmospheric rivers and triggering Rossby wave breaking.
• The model successfully generated about 56% (January 2017) and 38% (March 2023) of the observed extreme precipitation anomalies over California and adjacent regions after improving temperature initialization.

Contributions

• This study identifies high-elevation terrestrial temperature anomalies as a previously unidentified source of subseasonal to seasonal predictability for winter extreme hydroclimate events.
• The results suggest that remote land-surface thermal conditions can be used to improve predictive skill for Californian winter precipitation.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #1735994: "Understanding the Role of Tibetan Plateau Temperature Anomalies in Extreme Hydroclimate Events"
• NSF grant #2023253: "Improving Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions of Western US Precipitation"

Citation

@article{Xue2026Extraordinary,
  author = {Xue, Yongkang and Li, Qian and Lau, William K. M. and Neelin, J. David and Zeng, Xubin and Zhang, Yang and Li, Shuting and Kong, Xianghui and Guan, Bin and Boone, Aaron Anthony and Cao, Zhijiong and Wang, Aihui and Pan, Yan Fang and Tang, Qi and Nayak, Hara Prasad},
  title = {Extraordinary Tibetan Plateau early-winter heating drove record-breaking winter precipitation in California and adjacent regions},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aeg3577},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeg3577}
}