Matus et al. (2026) The sub-seasonal connection between the land surface and Great Plains low-level jet

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-25
• Authors: Sean Matus, Francina Domínguez
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0232.1

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the modulation of Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) intensity by sub-seasonal dry soil moisture anomalies. It finds that neglecting this land-surface interaction leads to significant errors in reconstructed GPLLJ wind speeds, highlighting the land surface's crucial role in GPLLJ variability.

Objective

• To test the hypothesis that sub-seasonal dry soil moisture anomalies modulate GPLLJ intensity through warmer near-surface temperatures, deepening of the planetary boundary layer, and stronger geostrophic and ageostrophic winds, leading to nocturnal supergeostrophic winds via enhanced buoyancy and the Blackadar inertial oscillation.
• To separate the different timescales embedded in GPLLJ variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Great Plains, central United States, southern Great Plains).
• Temporal Scale: Daily, warm season, focusing on sub-seasonal variability, and separating synoptic and planetary timescales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analytical method: Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) for decomposing variables into different timescales of covariability.
• Data sources: ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) daily variables, including soil moisture, geopotential height, and virtual potential temperature.

Main Results

• Enhanced GPLLJ activity is associated with sub-seasonal dry soil moisture anomalies over the southern Great Plains.
• Reconstructing GPLLJ wind speeds without incorporating sub-seasonal variability, which is strongly correlated with soil moisture, results in underestimated wind speeds during dry periods and overestimated wind speeds during wet periods.
• The land surface plays an important and quantifiable role in modulating GPLLJ intensity.

Contributions

• Provides quantitative evidence demonstrating the significant role of land-surface processes, specifically sub-seasonal soil moisture anomalies, in modulating GPLLJ intensity.
• Offers insights for improving sub-seasonal predictability of GPLLJ activity and associated extreme precipitation events.
• Utilizes Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) to effectively separate and analyze different timescales of covariability in GPLLJ dynamics.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Matus2026subseasonal,
  author = {Matus, Sean and Domínguez, Francina},
  title = {The sub-seasonal connection between the land surface and Great Plains low-level jet},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0232.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0232.1}
}