Matsuo et al. (2026) Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-07
• Authors: Yoshiki Matsuo, Tomoharu Okada, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori, Takuya Miyashita, Ryo Mizuta
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0274.1

Research Groups

• Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)

Short Summary

This study probabilistically assessed the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency using new large ensemble simulations with a slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM). It found a projected decrease in overall typhoon frequency but a significant increase in the annual probability of occurrence for extreme typhoons under the SSP585 future climate scenario.

Objective

• To probabilistically demonstrate the variability and future changes in typhoon intensity and frequency.
• To evaluate the relationship between the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and corresponding typhoon intensity.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global simulations with atmospheric resolutions of 60 km and 20 km.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period and future projection under the SSP585 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Slab-ocean coupled atmospheric global climate model (MRI-AGCM).
• Data sources: New large ensemble simulations performed under several sea surface boundary conditions (simulated/prescribed SST spatial patterns).

Main Results

• The weight-averaged number of typhoons in September is projected to decrease by 22% (at 60 km resolution) and 27% (at 20 km resolution) in the future projection compared to historical simulations.
• The annual probability of occurrence for typhoons ranking in the top 1% in historical simulations is projected to increase to 4–5% under SSP585 future climate conditions.
• The variance in typhoon intensity is larger in the future projection, with approximately 50–60% of this increase explained by SST pattern differences and future increments in mean SST.
• As the exceedance probability of typhoon intensity decreases, the contribution of climate change to its variance becomes more pronounced.
• Typhoon intensity becomes more sensitive to the trend of ENSO patterns in the future climate.

Contributions

• Provides a probabilistic assessment of future changes in typhoon characteristics using new large ensemble simulations.
• Quantifies the relationship between SST spatial patterns and typhoon intensity variability.
• Demonstrates a projected decrease in overall typhoon frequency alongside an increase in the probability of extreme typhoons and heightened sensitivity to ENSO patterns in a future climate.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Matsuo2026Probabilistic,
  author = {Matsuo, Yoshiki and Okada, Tomoharu and Shimura, Tomoya and Mori, Nobuhito and Miyashita, Takuya and Mizuta, Ryo},
  title = {Probabilistic Assessments on Future Changes in Typhoon Characteristics Based on Fixed-SST Ensemble Experiments by Slab-Ocean Coupled MRI-AGCM},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0274.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0274.1}
}