Zhang et al. (2026) Flash drought characteristics based on three identification methods in the North China Plain, China

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-23
• Authors: Siyao Zhang, Keke Zhou, Jianzhu Li, T A Zhang, Ping Feng
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0314.1

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study introduces a new identification method called the mean-scaled evaporative stress ratio (MESR) to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and hotspots of flash droughts (FD) in the North China Plain from 1981 to 2022.

Objective

• To propose and evaluate a new flash drought identification method (MESR) and explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of FD in the North China Plain from agricultural and land-atmosphere perspectives.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North China Plain (NCP).
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Mean-scaled evaporative stress ratio (MESR), improved standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR), and root zone soil moisture (RZSM) analysis; percentile-based FD hotspot indicator.
• Data sources: Atmospheric evaporative demand and root zone soil moisture data.

Main Results

• Spatial Distribution: FD frequency is highest in the north-central NCP and lowest in the southern NCP, with two primary hotspots located in the northeastern and southwestern regions.
• Temporal Trends: FD characteristics exhibit a decreasing trend both temporally and spatially, influenced by a combination of human activities and climate factors.
• Intensity Dynamics: For RZSM-based FD, onset, recovery, duration, and severity increase with intensity grades; conversely, SESR and MESR-based FDs show shorter onset stages but longer recovery stages as intensity increases.
• Sensitivity: FD frequency is significantly sensitive to identification thresholds, specifically those based on pentads. Additionally, RZSM-based FD frequency decreases as soil depth increases.

Contributions

• Develops a new identification framework (MESR) for flash droughts.
• Provides a comprehensive analysis of FD hotspots and the sensitivity of identification thresholds in the North China Plain, offering critical data for regional drought adaptation.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Flash,
  author = {Zhang, Siyao and Zhou, Keke and Li, Jianzhu and Zhang, T A and Feng, Ping},
  title = {Flash drought characteristics based on three identification methods in the North China Plain, China},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0314.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0314.1}
}