Xia et al. (2026) Dependence of Global Tropical Cyclones on the Tropical Pacific Mean State in the HighResMIP Models

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-15
• Authors: Yi Xia, C. Y. Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0317.1

Research Groups

Not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates how global tropical cyclone (TC) activity responds to different sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns, particularly in the tropical Pacific, using HighResMIP simulations. It finds that the TC response is highly sensitive to the tropical Pacific mean state, with SST-forced models showing La Niña-like TC trends, while coupled models exhibit no consistent response.

Objective

• To examine the response of global tropical cyclone (TC) activity to sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns using historical simulations from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, tropical Pacific, and individual ocean basins.
• Temporal Scale: Interannual time scales (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), recent decades (observations), and historical simulation periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) simulations, including:
  • Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SSTs.
  • Coupled simulations.
  • TC genesis index (TCGI) for quantifying environmental field contributions.
• Data sources: Observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to force atmosphere-only simulations.

Main Results

• The forced global TC response is sensitive to the tropical Pacific mean state and varies by basin.
• In SST-forced simulations (exhibiting a La Niña-like SST trend in the tropical Pacific), TC activity's trend patterns resemble TC anomalies observed during La Niña events.
• In SST-forced simulations, thermodynamic environmental fields (potential intensity and column-relative humidity) induce zonal variations in TC frequency.
• In SST-forced simulations, dynamical fields (vertical wind shear and absolute vorticity) induce meridional variations in TC frequency.
• Coupled simulations (showing a weaker La Niña-like SST trend or El Niño-like trend) show no consistent TC response across HighResMIP models.

Contributions

• Provides insight into the differing global TC responses to observed (La Niña-like) versus modeled (El Niño-like or weaker La Niña-like) tropical Pacific SST trends.
• Highlights the critical sensitivity of global TC activity to the tropical Pacific mean state.
• Differentiates the roles of thermodynamic versus dynamical environmental fields in inducing zonal and meridional variations in TC frequency in SST-forced models.

Funding

Not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Xia2026Dependence,
  author = {Xia, Yi and Lee, C. Y. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Sobel, Adam H.},
  title = {Dependence of Global Tropical Cyclones on the Tropical Pacific Mean State in the HighResMIP Models},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0317.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0317.1}
}