Samara et al. (2026) 2021–2023: Extreme Years of Global Drought in the Context of Long- and Short-Term Hydroclimate Trends

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-26
• Authors: Aandishah T. Samara, Jason E. Smerdon, Richard Seager, Benjamin I. Cook
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0342.1

Research Groups

Not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This paper performs a global assessment of dryness and wetness using an ensemble of soil moisture datasets and drought indices, revealing consistent drying trends in several regions and identifying 2023 as one of the driest years on record, with the 2021–2023 period marking the longest consecutive extreme global drought since the early 20th century, consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Objective

• To perform a global assessment of dryness and wetness conditions using an ensemble of observational, satellite-informed, and reanalysis-based soil moisture datasets and drought indices.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land area.
• Temporal Scale: Short-term (1982–2023) and long-term (1903–2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SM GLEAM, SM ERA5-LAND, SM MERRA-2, PDSI CRU, SPEI CRU.
• Data sources: Observational (implied by CRU indices), satellite-informed (SM GLEAM), reanalysis (SM ERA5-LAND, SM MERRA-2).

Main Results

• Consistent drying trends (1982–2023) were identified in western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Europe, Central Asia, and southern Australia.
• Wetting trends (1982–2023) were observed in southern and southeastern Asia, the Sahel, and parts of southern Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Disagreements across products were most evident in central Africa, parts of South America, the Middle-East, and Southeast Asia.
• The year 2023 ranked among the driest on record since 1982: driest in PDSI CRU and SM ERA5-LAND, second driest in SM GLEAM and SPEI CRU, and eighth in SM MERRA-2.
• A longer-term analysis (1903–2023) estimated 2023 as the most severe and spatially extensive drought year in over a century, affecting more than 27% of global reporting land area.
• The 2021–2023 period marked the longest consecutive stretch of extreme drought conditions globally since the early twentieth century.
• Global drought patterns over 2021–2023 align with long-term drying trends, consistent with the broader influence of anthropogenic climate change.
• Despite recent long-term wetting trends, the wetness of the past decades has not produced events of comparable magnitude to the unmatched severity and extent of wet extremes in the mid-20th century.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive global assessment of dryness and wetness using an ensemble of diverse datasets (observational, satellite-informed, reanalysis).
• Quantifies the severity and spatial extent of 2023 as a record-breaking drought year over a century-long period.
• Identifies the 2021–2023 period as the longest consecutive extreme global drought since the early 20th century.
• Links recent global drought patterns to the broader influence of anthropogenic climate change on global hydroclimate.
• Offers a comparative analysis of recent wetness trends against historical wet extremes, highlighting the unique magnitude of mid-20th century wet events.

Funding

Not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Samara202620212023,
  author = {Samara, Aandishah T. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Seager, Richard and Cook, Benjamin I.},
  title = {2021–2023: Extreme Years of Global Drought in the Context of Long- and Short-Term Hydroclimate Trends},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0342.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0342.1}
}