Cook et al. (2026) Local and Remote Moist Static Energy Constraints on Rainfall across Southern Africa

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-19
• Authors: Benjamin I. Cook, Amy McNally, Kimberly M. Slinski, Weston Anderson, Mahmoud Osman
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0363.1

Research Groups

• Climate Dynamics Group, University of Cape Town
• Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Witwatersrand
• National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS), UK

Short Summary

This study investigates the relationship between moist static energy (MSE) and rainfall variability in southern Africa. The authors found that MSE is a critical factor in modulating rainfall patterns across the region.

Objective

• Investigate the role of moist static energy in modulating rainfall variability in southern Africa.
• Examine the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall patterns in the region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern Africa, with a focus on the sub-regions of South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly and seasonal time scales, covering the period from 1980 to 2019.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis dataset, which provides high-resolution atmospheric data for the region.
• Data sources: Satellite-based precipitation datasets, such as CHIRPS, and in-situ observations from weather stations.

Main Results

• The study found that MSE is a critical factor in modulating rainfall patterns across southern Africa, with higher MSE values associated with increased rainfall.
• The authors also found that ENSO has a significant impact on rainfall variability in the region, with El Niño events leading to droughts and La Niña events resulting in floods.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between MSE and rainfall variability in southern Africa, highlighting the importance of considering this factor in climate modeling and prediction.
• The findings have implications for understanding the impacts of ENSO on regional climate patterns and can inform decision-making for agriculture, water resource management, and disaster risk reduction.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa through grant number 114946.
• Additional funding was provided by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through grant number NE/P01906X/1.

Citation

@article{Cook2026Local,
  author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and McNally, Amy and Slinski, Kimberly M. and Anderson, Weston and Osman, Mahmoud},
  title = {Local and Remote Moist Static Energy Constraints on Rainfall across Southern Africa},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0363.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0363.1}
}