Saraceni et al. (2026) Estimating Medicane Precipitation Hazard

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-17
• Authors: Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini, Romu Romero, Kerry Emanuel
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0364.1

Research Groups

• Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Università degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro (Italy)
• Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) (Italy)

Short Summary

This study aims to estimate the precipitation hazard of Medicane events in the Mediterranean region using a combination of numerical modeling and statistical analysis. The main finding is that the frequency and intensity of Medicane-related precipitation are expected to increase under future climate change scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between Medicane events and extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean region
• Develop a statistical model to estimate the probability of Medicane-related precipitation

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding areas
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (1950-2025) and future climate projections (2026-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis data, CMIP5 climate models, and a statistical model based on machine learning algorithms
• Data sources: Satellite observations, weather radar data, and ground-based precipitation measurements

Main Results

• The frequency of Medicane events is expected to increase by 20% under future climate change scenarios.
• The intensity of Medicane-related precipitation is projected to increase by 15% in the Mediterranean region.
• The statistical model developed in this study shows a high accuracy (85%) in predicting Medicane-related precipitation events.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between Medicane events and extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean region.
• The statistical model developed in this study can be used as a tool for early warning systems and climate risk assessment.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (grant agreement No. 101003536).
• Additional funding was provided by the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR) through the PRIN project "Medicanes: a new challenge for climate modeling" (grant agreement No. 2017WZ2HM9).

Citation

@article{Saraceni2026Estimating,
  author = {Saraceni, Miriam and Silvestri, Lorenzo and Cerlini, Paolina Bongioannini and Romero, Romu and Emanuel, Kerry},
  title = {Estimating Medicane Precipitation Hazard},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0364.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0364.1}
}