Hua et al. (2026) Future Shifts in Severe Storm Environments Revealed through Profile-Based Clustering

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Zhanxiang Hua, Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey, Daniel R. Chavas, Daniel T. Dawson
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0492.1

Research Groups

• Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, Oklahoma
• Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
• Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
• Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania

Short Summary

This study investigates projected changes in severe convective storm environments over the contiguous United States using a climate model under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 scenario. Results indicate an increase in both the annual frequency and spatial extent of environments conducive to severe convection.

Objective

• Investigate future shifts in severe storm environments over the contiguous United States.
• Analyze projected changes in atmospheric conditions that fuel severe thunderstorms under climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Contiguous United States
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1990–2009) and future (2080–99) simulations

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, version 1.2, high resolution (MPI-ESM1.2-HR)
• Data sources: Climate model output from historical and future simulations

Main Results

• Projected increase in both the annual frequency and spatial extent of environments conducive to severe convection across all ECAPE categories.
• Shift away from the central Great Plains for low-ECAPE environments, while medium- and high-ECAPE environments show widespread increases.
• High supercell composite parameter (SCP) SOM nodes exhibit significant future increases in thermodynamic instability and equilibrium level heights.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into projected changes in severe convective storm environments under climate change.
• The findings suggest an increased potential for environments supporting severe convection in a future warmer climate.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (Award Number: NSF-AGS-1821234).
• Additional funding provided by the University of Washington and Purdue University.

Citation

@article{Hua2026Future,
  author = {Hua, Zhanxiang and Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K. and Chavas, Daniel R. and Dawson, Daniel T. and Peters, John M.},
  title = {Future Shifts in Severe Storm Environments Revealed through Profile-Based Clustering},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0492.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0492.1}
}