Bonan et al. (2026) Estimating the maximum mean precipitation in hothouse climates

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: David Bonan, Tapio Schneider
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0593.1

Research Groups

• Earth System Physics Group, University of Bern
• Climate Dynamics Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Short Summary

This study presents an analytical model that estimates the maximum global-mean precipitation in climate models by approximating components of the surface energy budget using only temperature. The model reveals that the surface temperature at which precipitation peaks ranges from 300–360 K.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between global-mean precipitation and surface temperature in hothouse climates

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, representing the entire Earth's climate system
• Temporal Scale: Long-term, focusing on past hothouse climates and their simulated counterparts in climate models

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analytical model based on physically-based approximations of the surface energy budget
• Data sources: Climate models spanning different solar constants, including a suite of state-of-the-art climate models

Main Results

• The analytical model skillfully predicts the global-mean precipitation maximum simulated by climate models, with peak rates between 2.9–5.8 mm day −1
• Intermodel differences in the precipitation maximum are attributed to the shortwave cloud response to warming and the temperature at which precipitation peaks

Contributions

• Provides a framework for understanding the physics of extremely warm climates and the relationship between global-mean precipitation and surface temperature
• Offers insights into past hothouse climates, suggesting that global-mean precipitation may have peaked in these states

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Bonan2026Estimating,
  author = {Bonan, David and Schneider, Tapio},
  title = {Estimating the maximum mean precipitation in hothouse climates},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0593.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0593.1}
}