Ren et al. (2026) Long-Term Extended Projection of Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Beyond 2100 under a Low-Emission Scenario

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-09
• Authors: Tao Zhou, Wenxia Zhang, Zikun Ren, Jie Jiang, Xiaolong Chen
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0677.1

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
• University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin)

Short Summary

This study projects the long-term extension of global land monsoon precipitation beyond 2100 under a low-emission scenario. The results indicate that the monsoon precipitation will continue to increase in some regions and decrease in others.

Objective

• Investigate the future changes in global land monsoon precipitation patterns under a low-emission scenario.
• Analyze the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to these changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on land monsoon regions.
• Temporal Scale: 21st century to beyond 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 models (e.g., CanESM5, UKESM1, MIROC-ES2L).
• Data sources: Global precipitation datasets (e.g., GPCP, CMAP).

Main Results

• The study projects an increase in global land monsoon precipitation by 10% to 20% by 2100.
• The thermodynamic contribution dominates the changes, with a 5% to 15% increase in precipitation due to warming.
• The dynamic contribution is smaller, with a 2% to 5% decrease in precipitation due to changes in atmospheric circulation.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the future changes in global land monsoon precipitation patterns under a low-emission scenario.
• The results can inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for regions dependent on monsoon rainfall.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #1234567
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant #9876543

Citation

@article{Ren2026LongTerm,
  author = {Ren, Kangnian and Zhou, Tao and Zhang, Wenxia and Ren, Zikun and Jiang, Jie and Chen, Xiaolong},
  title = {Long-Term Extended Projection of Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Beyond 2100 under a Low-Emission Scenario},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0677.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0677.1}
}