Dong et al. (2026) Observed and Simulated Mesoscale Convective Systems over High Mountain Asia. Part II: Past Trend and Future Projection

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-22
• Authors: Wenhao Dong, Deliang Chen, Xiaomeng Huang, Julia Kukulies, Puxi Li, Yanluan Lin, Yong Luo, Fengfei Song, K Wang, Yuanyu Xie, Kun Yang
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0743.1

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
• University of Reading Department of Meteorology
• High Mountain Asia Research Group

Short Summary

This study examines the trends and drivers of mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using nearly four decades of satellite observations, and projects continued reductions in MCS frequency under warmer conditions.

Objective

• Investigate past trends and environmental drivers of MCS characteristics over HMA
• Assess projected responses of MCSs to global warming

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale over High Mountain Asia (HMA)
• Temporal Scale: 1985–2023, with projections up to the end of the century

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • High-resolution global climate model (∼25 km resolution)
  • Global storm-resolving model (∼3 km resolution)
• Data sources:
  • Satellite datasets (nearly four decades)

Main Results

• Decreasing trend in MCS frequency over HMA during 1985–2023
• Increasing convective inhibition (CIN) as the primary driver of this trend
• Simulations project continued reductions in MCS frequency under warmer conditions

Contributions

• Provides a multidecadal perspective on the evolution and projected response of MCSs over HMA
• Highlights the critical role of CIN in regulating convective organization and the potential for rarer but more intense storms to amplify hydrological and societal risks in a warming climate

Funding

• NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science) funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI)
• University of Reading Department of Meteorology supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
• High Mountain Asia Research Group funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF)

Citation

@article{Dong2026Observed,
  author = {Dong, Wenhao and Chen, Deliang and Huang, Xiaomeng and Kukulies, Julia and Li, Puxi and Lin, Yanluan and Luo, Yong and Song, Fengfei and Wang, K and Xie, Yuanyu and Yang, Kun},
  title = {Observed and Simulated Mesoscale Convective Systems over High Mountain Asia. Part II: Past Trend and Future Projection},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0743.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0743.1}
}