Zhang et al. (2026) Atmospheric Rivers Linking Tropical Forcing to Winter Precipitation over Southern China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-30
• Authors: Y S Zhang, Qinghua Ding, S. Yang, Mengqian Lu, Botao Zhou, Yanju Liu, Qingchen Chao, Chan Xiao, Guofu Wang
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0035.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study identifies a specific tropical sea surface temperature pattern involving ENSO, IOD, and WNP SST anomalies that enhances atmospheric river intrusion into southern China, leading to significant winter precipitation anomalies that are reasonably predicted by seasonal forecast models.

Objective

• To investigate the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on winter precipitation over southern China (SC) and clarify how tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations impact this through ARs.
• To assess how seasonal forecast models capture the impact of tropical SST variations on winter precipitation through ARs using objective metrics.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern China (SC), particularly along 20°N–30°N; East Asia; tropics to subtropics; hemispheric-scale circulation.
• Temporal Scale: Winter (December–January–February; DJF) interannual variability; rapid development from preceding summer to winter; preceding October and November for forecast skill screening.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Two operational seasonal forecast systems; dynamical models.
• Data sources: Observed sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation states.

Main Results

• A specific tropical SST pattern, involving the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Western North Pacific (WNP) SST anomalies, rapidly develops from the preceding summer to winter.
• This anomalous SST configuration generates a hemispheric-scale circulation pattern that enhances vertical wind shear and meridional moisture transport over southern China, favoring increased atmospheric river (AR) intrusion.
• Significant precipitation anomalies occur near southern China along 20°N–30°N, explaining over 50% of the interannual DJF precipitation variability.
• These ENSO-driven precipitation changes, mediated by AR activity, are reasonably predicted by two operational seasonal forecast systems.
• ENSO and its interaction with WNP SST anomalies are identified as primary sources of forecast skill for winter ARs and southern China precipitation.
• A screening scheme, based on observed SST and circulation states during October and November, was developed to identify years with higher dynamical model forecast skill for southern China DJF precipitation.

Contributions

• Clarifies the previously unclear influence of atmospheric rivers on significant winter precipitation over southern China.
• Identifies a specific co-evolving tropical SST pattern (ENSO, IOD, WNP SST) as a key driver of AR activity and precipitation anomalies in southern China.
• Quantifies the significant contribution (>50%) of this mechanism to the interannual variability of winter precipitation in the region.
• Demonstrates the reasonable predictability of these AR-mediated, ENSO-driven precipitation changes by operational seasonal forecast systems.
• Develops a practical screening scheme to identify periods of enhanced forecast skill for southern China winter precipitation.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Atmospheric,
  author = {Zhang, Y S and Ding, Qinghua and Yang, S. and Lu, Mengqian and Zhou, Botao and Liu, Yanju and Chao, Qingchen and Xiao, Chan and Wang, Guofu},
  title = {Atmospheric Rivers Linking Tropical Forcing to Winter Precipitation over Southern China},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0035.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0035.1}
}