Dou et al. (2026) Differential Regulation of Climate Modes on the Genesis Positions of Tropical Cyclones in Different Landing Areas

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-09
• Authors: Shunhua Dou, Zheng Li, Qingyue Tan, Shaohong Wu, Baofu Li, Shanfeng He
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0092.1

Research Groups

• School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, Shandong, China
• College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China
• Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study systematically analyzes the migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis positions and their differential responses to key climate modes along China's southeastern coast from 1949 to 2024, revealing a northwestward migration and distinct regulatory effects of AMO, ENSO, and PDO based on landing region.

Objective

• To systematically analyze the migration of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis positions and their differential responses to key climate modes across various landing regions along China’s southeastern coast.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China's southeastern coast, focusing on different landing regions (southern China coast, eastern coast).
• Temporal Scale: 76 years (1949–2024).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not explicitly stated as numerical models; an integrated methodological framework was employed for analysis.
• Data sources:
  • Best-track data from the China Meteorological Administration.
  • ERA5 reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Genesis positions of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have shown a northwestward migration and clustering trend.
• This migratory trend is statistically significant for TCs landing along the southern China coast, leading to a pronounced reduction in both the distance and time from genesis to landfall.
• ENSO, PDO, and AMO exhibit distinct regulatory effects on TC genesis positions across different landing regions.
• The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acts as the dominant controlling mode for TCs landing along the southern China coast.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) serves as the primary mode for TCs affecting the eastern coast.
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) primarily modulates the zonal variation of genesis positions, with a stronger influence observed on TCs landing along the eastern coast.
• ENSO, PDO, and AMO differentially regulate TC genesis positions by altering large-scale circulation, thermodynamic, and vertical environmental conditions, resulting in an inverse correlation between TC frequency and intensity.
• The mechanism of AMO is particularly complex and regionally heterogeneous.

Contributions

• Clarifies the mechanisms driving shifts in TC genesis positions across different landing areas, addressing a previously unclear aspect under climate change.
• Provides a scientific basis for improved tropical cyclone forecasting and targeted disaster prevention and mitigation strategies along China’s southeastern coast.

Funding

• Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Dou2026Differential,
  author = {Dou, Shunhua and Li, Zheng and Tan, Qingyue and Wu, Shaohong and Li, Baofu and He, Shanfeng},
  title = {Differential Regulation of Climate Modes on the Genesis Positions of Tropical Cyclones in Different Landing Areas},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0092.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0092.1}
}