Pathak et al. (2026) Evaluations of Precipitation, Temperature, and Circulation Characteristics in Simulations of CMIP6 Models over the Arabian Peninsula

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-06
• Authors: Raju Pathak, Hari Prasad Dasari, Caspar M. Ammann, David N Yates, Ashok Karumuri, Ibrahim Hoteit
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0137.1

Research Groups

• Physical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
• Climate Change Centre, National Center for Meteorology
• Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University
• Climate Strategies LLC
• National Center for Atmospheric Research

Short Summary

This study evaluates the performance of 74 CMIP6 models in simulating the historical climate of the Arabian Peninsula, highlighting biases and limitations in precipitation and temperature simulations.

Objective

• Evaluate the ability of CMIP6 models to reproduce the mean climate, trends, extremes, and key circulation/process diagnostics over the Arabian Peninsula.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Arabian Peninsula)
• Temporal Scale: Historical period

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 74 CMIP6 models (including HighResMIP)
• Data sources: Observations, reanalysis data

Main Results

• Precipitation biases include annual-mean wet-bias over the southern AP and dry-bias over the central AP.
• Temperature simulations show high-pattern agreement but nearly all models exhibit wet-season cold-bias and misrepresent the hot- and cold-tails.
• Distribution diagnostics indicate that inter-model-spread dominates uncertainty.

Contributions

• Provides an observationally-constrained basis for model selection and uncertainty characterization.
• Highlights the need for rigorous validation and continued model improvement for reliable regional-climate projections.

Funding

• This research was supported by [insert funding agencies/programs/reference codes].

Citation

@article{Pathak2026Evaluations,
  author = {Pathak, Raju and Dasari, Hari Prasad and Ammann, Caspar M. and Yates, David N and Karumuri, Ashok and Hoteit, Ibrahim},
  title = {Evaluations of Precipitation, Temperature, and Circulation Characteristics in Simulations of CMIP6 Models over the Arabian Peninsula},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0137.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0137.1}
}