Doane‐Solomon et al. (2026) Moisture Budgets and Circulation Analogs: Diagnosing Dynamic and Thermodynamic Precipitation Change

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-25
• Authors: Robert Doane‐Solomon, Isla R. Simpson, Woollings Tim
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0257.1

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study compares moisture budget analysis and constructed circulation analogs to disentangle dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of precipitation trends in Central Chile, proposing a combined framework to reduce dynamic contamination in thermodynamic projections.

Objective

• To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of two different methodological approaches (moisture budget analysis vs. constructed circulation analogs) in separating dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to moisture flux convergence trends.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central Chile.
• Temporal Scale: Historical/satellite era (1980–2022) and future projections (1980–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CESM2 Large Ensemble.
• Data sources: Two reanalyses and CESM2 ensemble members.

Main Results

• Dynamic trend estimates differ substantially between the two methods: for the 1980–2100 period, the ensemble mean dynamic trend from circulation analogs is nearly twice that of the moisture budget approach.
• For individual ensemble members (1980–2022), the mean absolute difference between methods is $0.1\text{ mm/month/year}$.
• The moisture budget approach is prone to "dynamic contamination" because it classifies specific humidity trends as thermodynamic, even when they are influenced by dynamic processes.
• A combined framework applying circulation analogs to moisture budget terms yields projections of thermodynamic precipitation change that are weaker than those suggested by either method used in isolation.

Contributions

• Identifies a significant discrepancy in how different methods attribute precipitation trends to dynamic versus thermodynamic factors.
• Proposes a refined combined framework that reduces dynamic contamination, leading to more accurate estimates of thermodynamic precipitation change in Central Chile.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{DoaneSolomon2026Moisture,
  author = {Doane‐Solomon, Robert and Simpson, Isla R. and Tim, Woollings},
  title = {Moisture Budgets and Circulation Analogs: Diagnosing Dynamic and Thermodynamic Precipitation Change},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0257.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0257.1}
}