Dollan et al. (2026) Multiday Precipitation Extremes are Projected to Become Less Likely in Southern Pakistan

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-15
• Authors: Ishrat Jahan Dollan, Viviana Maggioni, Diogo S. A. Araujo, Soelem Aafnan Bhuiyan, Anju Vijayan Nair, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0032.1

Research Groups

Not available from the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the characteristics of the unprecedented 2022 monsoon wet spell in southern Pakistan and projects future changes in the frequency of similar extreme precipitation events. It finds that the 2022 event was unusually intense, but future climate scenarios suggest a reduced risk of such multiday extreme monsoon precipitation relative to historical likelihoods.

Objective

• To investigate the rainfall characteristics of the unprecedented multiday wet spell of 2022 in southern Pakistan, particularly in the Sindh and Balochistan Provinces.
• To examine how future climate scenarios may alter the frequency of multiday extreme monsoon precipitation in this data-scarce region.
• To investigate the changing risk of 2022-like accumulated rainfall from the historical context of monsoon rainfall.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern Pakistan, particularly the Sindh and Balochistan Provinces.
• Temporal Scale:
  • 2022 multiday wet spell.
  • Monsoon season: June–August (JJA).
  • Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG) data: 2000–2023.
  • Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) historical simulations: 1990–2014.
  • SPEAR future simulations: 2070–2100, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) (bias-corrected and statistically downscaled 30-member ensemble).
• Data sources: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) (IMERG) satellite data, SPEAR historical and future climate simulations, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).

Main Results

• The maximum 5-day accumulated rainfall in 2022 was unusually intense in southwestern Balochistan, with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) above +2.
• SPEAR ensemble projections suggest a reduced future risk of 2022-like events relative to the historical baseline.
• Regionally, the probability of a 2022-like event may decline to 22% of the historical likelihood under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• Large member single climate model simulations show consistency in trends.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed investigation of the rainfall characteristics of the unprecedented 2022 multiday wet spell in southern Pakistan, a data-scarce region.
• Applies GEV models to satellite and climate model data to project future changes in the frequency of extreme monsoon precipitation.
• Quantifies the potential reduction in the probability of 2022-like extreme events under future climate scenarios, offering insights for adaptation and mitigation.

Funding

Not available from the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Dollan2026Multiday,
  author = {Dollan, Ishrat Jahan and Maggioni, Viviana and Araujo, Diogo S. A. and Bhuiyan, Soelem Aafnan and Nair, Anju Vijayan and Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.},
  title = {Multiday Precipitation Extremes are Projected to Become Less Likely in Southern Pakistan},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0032.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0032.1}
}