Likoya et al. (2026) A Multi-model Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-28
• Authors: Emmanuel Likoya, Ajay Bhave, Andrew J. Dougill, Cathryn E. Birch
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0060.1

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Malawi
• Climate Change Unit, Lilongwe, Malawi
• International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Southern Africa Regional Office

Short Summary

This study examines the dynamics of water availability and irrigation water demand in five river basins over Malawi using a suite of bias-corrected Global Climate Models coupled with a Soil Water Assessment Tool. The results highlight the risks associated with droughts and projected increase in irrigation water demand.

Objective

• Investigate the interactions between drought risk and irrigation planning in Malawi's river basins

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Five major river basins across Malawi, southern Africa
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (historical and projected) climate scenarios

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 18 bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• Data sources: GCM outputs coupled with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

Main Results

• Strong coupling between precipitation and streamflow creates conditions suitable for quick propagation of drought signals
• Episodic spikes in irrigation water demand often coincide with periods of diminished streamflow, reducing water supply for irrigation when needed most
• Mean irrigation water demand is projected to increase by 20% to 50% across the five river basins (low-mitigation scenario)
• Frequency of irrigation water demand spikes is also projected to increase

Contributions

• This study highlights other dimensions of climate risks for irrigation aside changing average climatic conditions, emphasizing the need for robust decision-making approaches and model improvements.

Funding

• Malawi Government's Department of Irrigation and Water Resources Development
• International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
• Climate Change Adaptation Trust (CCAT)

Citation

@article{Likoya2026Multimodel,
  author = {Likoya, Emmanuel and Bhave, Ajay and Dougill, Andrew J. and Birch, Cathryn E.},
  title = {A Multi-model Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0060.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0060.1}
}