Dollan et al. (2026) How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-16
• Authors: Ishrat Jahan Dollan, Kevin A. Reed, Michael F Wehner, Naresh Devineni
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0088.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the projected future changes in extreme daily rainfall, exemplified by Hurricane Ida (2021), over the Northeast United States under a high-emission warming scenario. It finds that Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times and up to 5 times more likely to occur by the end of the twenty-first century.

Objective

• To investigate projected future changes in extreme daily rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021, and how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northeast United States, with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations at 12 km resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1950–2014 for observations, 1980–2014 for WRF simulations) and future period (2060–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) framework.
• Data sources: Fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (for WRF forcing), Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) ground observations (1950–2014), WRF historical simulations (1980–2014), and thermodynamically modified WRF future simulations (2060–2100) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) high-emission scenario.

Main Results

• Ida's daily maximum rainfall exceeded the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for approximately 30% of the observation stations (5 out of 17).
• Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur by the end of the century in the simulations.
• Some regions are projected to experience up to 5 times increased likelihood of Ida-like extreme daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario.

Contributions

This work demonstrates the crucial role of integrating high-resolution atmospheric model simulations (present-day and thermodynamically modified future) with ground observations within a nonstationary statistical framework to understand the changing characteristics of extreme weather events. It uniquely contextualizes the impact of warming on the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event (Hurricane Ida) relative to historical heavy downpours.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Dollan2026How,
  author = {Dollan, Ishrat Jahan and Reed, Kevin A. and Wehner, Michael F and Devineni, Naresh},
  title = {How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0088.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0088.1}
}