Burić (2026) Are Changes in Seasonal and Annual Precipitation in the Balkan Peninsula Driven by Increases in Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases or by Teleconnection Variability?

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-10
• Authors: Dragan Burić
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0184.1

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzes precipitation trends and their drivers in the Balkan Peninsula from 1950 to 2024 using ERA5-Land and GPCC datasets, revealing widespread seasonal and annual precipitation decreases primarily influenced by atmospheric oscillations, with limited impact from anthropogenic greenhouse gases or oceanic oscillations.

Objective

• To analyze seasonal and annual precipitation trends in the Balkan Peninsula from 1950 to 2024 using ERA5-Land and GPCC datasets.
• To identify the influence of atmospheric oscillations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas indicators, and oceanic oscillations on precipitation variability in the region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Balkan Peninsula, approximately 550,000 km², covered by 7,297 (ERA5-Land) and 1,496 (GPCC) grid cells at 0.1° and 0.25° resolution, respectively.
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not applicable; the study primarily analyzes reanalysis and gridded observational datasets.
• Data sources:
  • ERA5-Land reanalysis data (0.1° resolution)
  • GPCC gridded precipitation data (0.25° resolution)
  • In situ measurements (for validation in Montenegro)
  • 11 atmospheric oscillation indices (e.g., NAO, AO, EAWR, NCP)
  • Two anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) indicators
  • Five oceanic oscillation indices (e.g., AMM, AMO, PDO)

Main Results

• ERA5-Land and GPCC datasets show very high agreement with in situ measurements in Montenegro, though precipitation is underestimated in mountainous areas.
• Widespread decreases in seasonal and annual precipitation are observed across the Balkan Peninsula:
  • Winter: 90% (ERA5-Land) / 64% (GPCC) of grid cells show decreases.
  • Spring: 80% (ERA5-Land) / 57% (GPCC) of grid cells show decreases.
  • Summer: 70% (ERA5-Land) / 62% (GPCC) of grid cells show decreases.
  • Autumn: 42% (ERA5-Land) / 38% (GPCC) of grid cells show decreases.
  • Annually: 83% (ERA5-Land) / 60% (GPCC) of grid cells show decreases.
• Significant annual precipitation reductions occur over approximately 12% of the region.
• 10 out of 11 atmospheric oscillation indices have a spatially significant impact on winter precipitation, particularly NAO, AO, EAWR, and NCP.
• Fewer atmospheric oscillations influence precipitation in other seasons and annually.
• The effect of two anthropogenic greenhouse gas indicators on precipitation was largely insignificant and ambiguous.
• Only in limited areas do two of five oceanic oscillations (AMM and AMO) significantly influence winter and summer precipitation, while PDO affects spring precipitation variability.

Contributions

This study provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of precipitation trends and their drivers across the Balkan Peninsula using high-resolution reanalysis and gridded observational datasets. It quantifies the widespread decrease in precipitation, identifies the dominant influence of specific atmospheric oscillations on winter precipitation, and highlights the limited impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and most oceanic oscillations, offering crucial insights for water resource management and policy-making in the region.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Burić2026Are,
  author = {Burić, Dragan},
  title = {Are Changes in Seasonal and Annual Precipitation in the Balkan Peninsula Driven by Increases in Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases or by Teleconnection Variability?},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0184.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0184.1}
}