Li et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Patterns of Drought and Flood Abrupt Alternation and Their Driving Factors in China from 1951 to 2020

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-22
• Authors: Zheng Li, Yibo Wang, Qiuhan Hu, Kun Yang, Jiongjiong Liu, Jie He, Wenfeng Liu
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0187.1

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology
• School of Geographic Sciences, Fujian Normal University

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events in China's 218 tertiary river basins from 1951 to 2020 using long-/short-cycle DFAA indices. The results show that regions prone to DTF events have shifted southward, while FTD hotspots have migrated northward.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of drought-to-flood (DTF) and flood-to-drought (FTD) events in China's river basins from 1951 to 2020.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 218 tertiary river basins across China
• Temporal Scale: 70 years, from 1951 to 2020

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Random forest regression and Shapley additive explanations method
• Data sources: Long-/short-cycle DFAA indices, relative humidity, downward shortwave solar radiation, teleconnection indices, and climate reanalysis data

Main Results

• Regions prone to DTF events have shifted southward by approximately 325 km.
• FTD hotspots have migrated northward by approximately 328 km.
• Relative humidity and downward shortwave solar radiation are the main drivers of DFAA index variation.
• Higher relative humidity or weaker downward shortwave solar radiation contributes positively to the DFAA index, favoring DTF events.

Contributions

This study provides a crucial scientific basis for understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of DFAA events in China and their underlying causes. The findings help decision-makers formulate response policies to mitigate the cascading impacts of complex hydrological extremes in a changing climate.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91837204)
• Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)

Citation

@article{Li2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Li, Zheng and Wang, Yibo and Hu, Qiuhan and Yang, Kun and Liu, Jiongjiong and He, Jie and Liu, Wenfeng},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Patterns of Drought and Flood Abrupt Alternation and Their Driving Factors in China from 1951 to 2020},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0187.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0187.1}
}