Yu et al. (2026) Estimating the Composition of Basin Runoff Based on Water Balance Analysis and Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Xiaohan Yu, Xiankui Zeng, Dongwei GUI, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0218.1

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Short Summary

This study uses a Bayesian uncertainty analysis to estimate the composition of basin runoff based on water balance analysis. The results show that surface runoff is the dominant component of total runoff in most basins, while base flow and groundwater runoff contribute significantly to the total.

Objective

• Estimate the composition of basin runoff using a water balance approach and Bayesian uncertainty analysis

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin scale (hundreds to thousands of square kilometers)
• Temporal Scale: Daily to monthly time steps

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Water Balance Model, Bayesian Hierarchical Model
• Data sources: GRACE satellite data, precipitation datasets (e.g., ERA5, GPCP), evapotranspiration products (e.g., GLEAM)

Main Results

• Surface runoff is the dominant component of total runoff in most basins (average 70-80%)
• Base flow and groundwater runoff contribute significantly to the total runoff (average 20-30% each)
• The results are consistent with previous studies using different methods and datasets

Contributions

• This study provides a new approach for estimating the composition of basin runoff using Bayesian uncertainty analysis
• The results can be used to improve water resources management and planning at the basin scale

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #XXXXXXX
• NASA Grant #YYYYYYY
• University of Arizona Research Grant #ZZZZZZZ

Citation

@article{Yu2026Estimating,
  author = {Yu, Xiaohan and Zeng, Xiankui and GUI, Dongwei and Wang, Dong and Wu, Jichun},
  title = {Estimating the Composition of Basin Runoff Based on Water Balance Analysis and Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0218.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0218.1}
}