Mohammadiigder et al. (2026) Disentangling The Contribution of Precipitation and Epistemic Uncertainties on Streamflow Estimates from Hydrologic Models in The Canadian Prairies

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-11
• Authors: Omid Mohammadiigder, Ricardo Mantilla, Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, Muhammad Mehboob, Fisaha S. Unduche
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-26-0089.1

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba
• Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management at Government of Manitoba

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of precipitation uncertainty on streamflow estimates in the Canadian Prairies using a combinatorial approach. The results show that precipitation-induced streamflow errors depend strongly on model parameterization.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between precipitation input errors and resulting streamflow errors (P–Q)
• Analyze the effect of precipitation uncertainty on streamflow simulations

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Canadian Prairies, 16 catchments
• Temporal Scale: 2008-2023 for calibration and 2018-2023 for simulation

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Raven hydrological modelling framework
• Data sources: Satellite and reanalysis-based precipitation estimates from 405 observed–estimated pairs

Main Results

• Precipitation-induced streamflow errors depend strongly on model parameterization, particularly as input errors increase.
• Behavioural parameter sets do not exhibit uniform error propagation despite similar calibration performance.
• Precipitation elasticity analysis reveals a strong relationship between precipitation input errors and resulting streamflow errors.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the impact of precipitation uncertainty on streamflow simulations in the Canadian Prairies. The results highlight the importance of considering model parameterization when evaluating the robustness of hydrological models to input errors.

Funding

• This research was funded by [project/program name and reference code]

Citation

@article{Mohammadiigder2026Disentangling,
  author = {Mohammadiigder, Omid and Mantilla, Ricardo and Rajulapati, Chandra Rupa and Mehboob, Muhammad and Unduche, Fisaha S.},
  title = {Disentangling The Contribution of Precipitation and Epistemic Uncertainties on Streamflow Estimates from Hydrologic Models in The Canadian Prairies},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-26-0089.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-26-0089.1}
}