Ahmad et al. (2026) Hydro-Climate Variability and Its Implications for Water Resource Sustainability in the Sahiwal Region of Pakistan

Identification

• Journal: European journal of applied sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-11
• Authors: Sajjad Ahmad, F Raza, Sara Musaddiq, Mohammad Abdullah Saeed, Aqsa Nawaz, Shabnam Hameed, Sehrish Ramzan, Abdul Ghafoor, Amina Zara Chaudhary, Muhammad Azeem Akbar
• DOI: 10.14738/aivp.1401.19739

Research Groups

• Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, Ministry of Water Resources, Islamabad, Pakistan
• Department of Chemistry, The Women University, Multan, Pakistan
• Department of Chemistry, University of Sahiwal, Sahiwal, Pakistan
• Department of Chemistry, Government Graduate College Sahiwal, Pakistan
• Department of Chemistry, COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus

Short Summary

This study evaluates hydro-climatic variability and its implications for water resource sustainability in the Sahiwal region of Pakistan, analyzing ten years of rainfall data (2014–2023) to identify trends, predict future patterns, and propose climate-adaptive interventions like rainwater harvesting and managed aquifer recharge. It found significant rainfall variability, a slight declining trend, and a shift towards earlier, more intense monsoon peaks, threatening groundwater and agriculture.

Objective

• To evaluate the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns in the Sahiwal region of Pakistan.
• To assess the implications of hydro-climatic variability for water resource sustainability, agricultural yield, and groundwater replenishment.
• To identify and recommend adaptive strategies, such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) and managed aquifer recharge (MAR), to enhance climate resilience and secure water availability for the region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Sahiwal Region, Central Punjab province, Pakistan. Specifically, the Sahiwal District core (approximately 30.5°–31.5°N latitude and 72.5°–73.5°E longitude), covering an area of approximately 4,500–5,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: Ten years of historical rainfall data (2014–2023) for analysis and five years of future prediction (2024–2028).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Statistical analysis (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Z-score, regression modeling).
  • Runoff volume calculation model for rainwater harvesting potential (Q = C × I × A / 1000).
• Data sources:
  • Regional meteorological records for annual and monthly rainfall data (2014–2023).

Main Results

• Annual rainfall in the Sahiwal region exhibited significant inter-annual variability, ranging from a minimum of 219 mm (2021, intense drought) to a maximum of 625.62 mm (2015, extreme rainfall). The mean annual rainfall was 420.3 mm, with a standard deviation of 115.7 mm (coefficient of variation approximately 29%).
• Statistical risk modeling indicated that 20% of the years were extreme dry, 10% extreme wet, and 70% moderate/normal, with a notable dry trend observed from 2017 to 2021.
• Linear regression analysis predicted a slight decline in annual rainfall for 2024–2028, with forecasted values ranging from 359 mm to 315 mm, all below the historical average. However, high standard deviation suggests actual rainfall could deviate widely.
• Monthly rainfall patterns showed a shift towards an earlier monsoon onset in June, intensified peaks in July, and reduced post-monsoon rainfall, leading to a shorter effective rainy season and increased episodic heavy events.
• A model calculation for a standard 465 m² rooftop in Sahiwal demonstrated a potential to harvest approximately 118,600 liters of rainwater annually, indicating high feasibility for decentralized water storage.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed, decade-long (2014-2023) quantitative analysis of hydro-climatic variability and rainfall trends specific to the Sahiwal region, a moderate-arid zone in Pakistan.
• Quantifies the risks associated with rainfall unpredictability (droughts and extreme wet events) and their implications for groundwater resources and agricultural productivity.
• Proposes and quantifies the potential of practical, climate-adaptive interventions like rainwater harvesting and managed aquifer recharge, offering a specific model calculation for RWH.
• Emphasizes the critical importance of integrating these sustainable water management strategies into regional planning for enhanced climate resilience and water security.

Funding

• Not explicitly stated in the paper.

Citation

@article{Ahmad2026HydroClimate,
  author = {Ahmad, Sajjad and Raza, F and Musaddiq, Sara and Saeed, Mohammad Abdullah and Nawaz, Aqsa and Hameed, Shabnam and Ramzan, Sehrish and Ghafoor, Abdul and Chaudhary, Amina Zara and Akbar, Muhammad Azeem},
  title = {Hydro-Climate Variability and Its Implications for Water Resource Sustainability in the Sahiwal Region of Pakistan},
  journal = {European journal of applied sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.14738/aivp.1401.19739},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.14738/aivp.1401.19739}
}