Llenas et al. (2026) EUMETNET SRNWP-EPS EFI/SOT Software: From Research to Operations in AEMET-γSREPS

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Operational Meteorology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-05
• Authors: Joan Montolio Llenas, Alfons Callado-Pallarès, Juan José Gómez‐Navarro
• DOI: 10.15191/nwajom.2026.1416

Research Groups

• EUMETNET Member States
• AEMET (Spanish Meteorological Agency)
• Météo-France (methodological contribution)
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Short Summary

Development and operational implementation of a Python-based software tool to compute the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) for EUMETNET's Limited Area Modelling Ensemble Prediction Systems (LAM-EPS).

Objective

• To create a standardized software tool for calculating EFI and SOT indices across various meteorological variables while overcoming the computational costs associated with generating robust EPS-climatologies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional/Limited Area (LAM-EPS across EUMETNET Member States).
• Temporal Scale: Short Range Numerical Weather Prediction (SRNWP); project development period from 2019 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: LAM-EPS, AEMET-γSREPS.
• Data sources: Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) data; EPS-climatology enriched via temporal and spatial relaxation techniques and a land-sea mask.
• Technical Stack: Python 3, Linux environment, ECMWF ATOS High Performance Computer Facility (HPCF).

Main Results

• Successfully developed software capable of computing EFI and SOT for accumulated precipitation, accumulated snow, 2 m maximum/minimum temperature, and 10 m maximum wind gusts.
• Demonstrated the software's utility through the analysis of specific extreme weather events.
• Achieved operational implementation within the AEMET-γSREPS system, providing forecasting products comparable to those of the ECMWF Ensemble (ECMWF ENS).

Contributions

• Provides a computationally efficient method for constructing EPS-climatologies using spatial and temporal relaxation, avoiding the need for expensive full re-forecasts.
• Introduces a land-sea mask to ensure physically-based restrictions during spatial relaxation.
• Offers a standardized tool for EUMETNET members to identify extreme weather events using indices consistent with global standards.

Funding

• EUMETNET SRNWP-EPS 2019 to 2023 project.

Citation

@article{Llenas2026EUMETNET,
  author = {Llenas, Joan Montolio and Callado-Pallarès, Alfons and Gómez‐Navarro, Juan José},
  title = {EUMETNET SRNWP-EPS EFI/SOT Software: From Research to Operations in AEMET-γSREPS},
  journal = {Journal of Operational Meteorology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.15191/nwajom.2026.1416},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2026.1416}
}