Liu (2026) data for “Projected impacts of extreme heat stress on China’s economy...”

Identification

• Journal: Mendeley Data
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-27
• Authors: Zhengyuan Liu
• DOI: 10.17632/pvhn2w5wss.1

Research Groups

• Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, Guangzhou

Short Summary

This study develops a multi-model integrated assessment framework to project future heat stress and its cascading economic impacts in China under a high-emission scenario, finding that national industrial value-added loss could reach 4.7% of GDP by 2050, with the transport and warehousing sector acting as a critical loss transmission node.

Objective

• To systematically investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of future heat stress risk in China, the mechanisms of labor loss, and the resulting cascading economic effects along industrial chains under the SSP585 high-emission scenario.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China, with a 50 km resolution for climate modeling.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (validation) and future projections from 2017 to 2050.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Five high-resolution CMIP6 climate models (ensemble)
  • Liljegren physical model (for biometeorological modeling)
  • Localized exposure-response function
  • AMRIO multi-regional input-output model
  • HadGEM3-GC31-HM model (specifically noted for optimal performance)
• Data sources:
  • CMIP6 climate model outputs
  • Meteorological data
  • Population data
  • Economic data

Main Results

• The multi-model ensemble simulation of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) during the historical period showed excellent overall performance (R > 0.95), with the 50 km resolution HadGEM3-GC31-HM model exhibiting optimal performance.
• Future extreme heat stress risk in China, represented by the 95th percentile of WBGT, is projected to increase significantly, with outdoor WBGT daily maximum values in South China exceeding 34 °C.
• Heat stress intensification follows a distinct NW-SE gradient, with larger increases in the northwest and northeast regions (1.8–2.0 °C) and smaller increases along the southeast coast (1.0–1.2 °C), driven by nonlinear humidity response to warming modulated by regional topography.
• Two types of highly vulnerable regions for future labor loss risk were identified: "development-lagged" and "transition-stressed".
• Under a no-intervention scenario, national total industrial value-added loss is projected to increase from 2.7% of GDP in 2017 to 4.7% of GDP in 2050, with a growth rate exceeding that of GDP.
• The transport and warehousing sector was identified as a critical "loss transmission node", exhibiting extremely high loss rates (reaching 12.62% in Northeast China), significantly amplifying systemic risk through a positive feedback loop.
• Uncertainty ranges of simulations exhibited pronounced asymmetry, with the upper bound (107–145%) dominated by parameters of socioeconomic system resilience, which are as important as climate forcing.

Contributions

• Development of a novel multi-model integrated assessment framework coupling high-resolution biometeorological modeling with multi-regional input-output analysis.
• Systematic investigation of the spatiotemporal patterns of future heat stress risk, labor loss mechanisms, and cascading economic effects along industrial chains in China.
• Identification of specific vulnerable regions and critical "loss transmission nodes" within the economy.
• Quantification of the significant economic impacts of extreme heat stress on China's GDP and specific sectors.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Liu2026data,
  author = {Liu, Zhengyuan},
  title = {data for “Projected impacts of extreme heat stress on China’s economy...”},
  journal = {Mendeley Data},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.17632/pvhn2w5wss.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.17632/pvhn2w5wss.1}
}