Szanyi et al. (2026) Assessment of Changes in Groundwater Resources Due to Climate Change for the Purpose of Sustainable Water Management in Hungary

Identification

• Journal: Preprints.org
• Year: 2026
• Authors: János Szanyi, Hawkar A. Abdulhaq, Robert Mark Hegyi, Tamás Gál, Éva Szabó, László Lossos, Emese Tóth
• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202601.2237.v1

Research Groups

• Department of Geology, University of Szeged, Hungary
• National Laboratory for Water Science and Water Safety, Hungary
• Department of Atmospheric and Geospatial Data Sciences, University of Szeged, Hungary
• General Directorate of Water Management (OVF), Hungary
• Upper-Tisza-regional Water Directorate (FETIVIZIG), Hungary
• Trans-Tisza Region Water Directorate (TIVIZIG), Hungary

Short Summary

This study evaluates the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic water extraction on groundwater resources in Hungary's Nyírség region using numerical modeling and remote sensing. The findings indicate that while climate-driven infiltration loss is the primary driver of regional water table decline, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) via subsurface injection offers a viable local mitigation strategy.

Objective

• To assess multi-decadal changes in groundwater levels and predict future resources by 2050 under climate change and varying water demand scenarios, while evaluating the effectiveness of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) techniques.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nyírség region, North-Eastern Hungary (5,100 km²), characterized as a hydraulically coherent recharge–discharge system.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis (1970–2022 for groundwater; 1981–2024 for hydroclimate) and mid-century projections (2050).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MODFLOW (Processing MODFLOW Pro) for 3D hydrodynamic flow simulation (7-layer model); Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Kriging for spatial interpolation.
• Data sources:
  • Hydroclimate: CHIRPS (daily precipitation), ERA5-Land (hourly snow depth, temperature, dewpoint).
  • Satellite Imagery: Landsat 8 Collection 2 Level-2 (NDVI and Land Surface Temperature) used to identify potential illegal wells.
  • Observations: 3,141 monitoring and production wells; hydrological profiles of rivers and canals.

Main Results

• Climate Trends: Observed warming of +3.08 °C between 1981 and 2024; significant decline in annual mean snow depth from 0.0166 m to ~0.0019 m.
• Groundwater Decline: Monitoring wells in recharge areas (>130 m a.s.l.) showed water level drops of up to 3 m after 2010.
• 2050 Projections: Forecasts indicate a 20% decrease in infiltration and a 25% increase in evapotranspiration, leading to an additional water shortage of 510 million m³ (equivalent to a 0.5 m average water table drop).
• Anthropogenic Impact: Total water production reached ~110 million m³/year in 2022, with illegal withdrawals estimated to exceed legal production.
• MAR Effectiveness: Subsurface injection via drainage pipes was more effective than surface infiltration from lakes, increasing the influence radius (defined by a 0.05 m rise) from ~1,000 m to 1,250 m.

Contributions

• Developed a novel methodology for identifying and quantifying illegal agricultural water extraction using NDVI and Land Surface Temperature (LST) anomalies.
• Provided a quantitative comparison between climate-driven regional depletion and localized drawdown caused by concentrated municipal/industrial pumping.
• Demonstrated that natural climatic variability drives subsurface flow changes significantly larger than those caused by current water production, necessitating a shift toward "digital twin" decision support systems for sustainable management.

Funding

• Széchenyi Plan Plus Programme, supported by the RRF 2.3.1-21-2022-00008 project.

Citation

@article{Szanyi2026Assessment,
  author = {Szanyi, János and Abdulhaq, Hawkar A. and Hegyi, Robert Mark and Gál, Tamás and Szabó, Éva and Lossos, László and Tóth, Emese},
  title = {Assessment of Changes in Groundwater Resources Due to Climate Change for the Purpose of Sustainable Water Management in Hungary},
  journal = {Preprints.org},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.20944/preprints202601.2237.v1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202601.2237.v1}
}

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