Huang et al. (2026) Ecological drought evolution analysis and risk assessment based on three-dimensional Copula function and cloud model

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydroinformatics
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-10
• Authors: Chunyan Huang, Chunyu Yang, Yanling Li, Yao Lu, K. H. Wang, Saiwuriding Hubuding
• DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2026.100

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

The study develops an Ecological Drought Index (EDI) using a three-dimensional Copula function to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and risk uncertainties of ecological droughts in the Yellow River Basin.

Objective

• To construct a robust Ecological Drought Index (EDI) and assess the spatiotemporal distribution and risk-uncertainty features of ecological droughts in the Yellow River Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Basin (YRB), with specific focus on the Loess Plateau.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly resolution.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Three-dimensional Copula functions (for EDI construction), Run theory (for drought analysis), and the MBCT-SR inverse cloud model (for risk and uncertainty assessment).
• Data sources: Multi-source data including the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

Main Results

• The EDI effectively captures ecological drought occurrences, demonstrating stability against asynchronous meteorological and soil droughts and high sensitivity to vegetation water stress.
• Spatiotemporal analysis reveals that drought frequency peaks during the winter season.
• Drought intensity exhibits a spatial gradient, increasing from the southeast to the northwest of the basin.
• The Loess Plateau is identified as a critical high-risk zone, characterized by higher levels of stochasticity and fuzziness in drought evolution compared to other regions.

Contributions

• Integrates multi-source monitoring with an uncertainty-aware risk assessment framework, providing a more nuanced tool for ecological conservation and drought management in the Yellow River Basin.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Huang2026Ecological,
  author = {Huang, Chunyan and Yang, Chunyu and Li, Yanling and Lu, Yao and Wang, K. H. and Hubuding, Saiwuriding},
  title = {Ecological drought evolution analysis and risk assessment based on three-dimensional Copula function and cloud model},
  journal = {Journal of Hydroinformatics},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.2166/hydro.2026.100},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2026.100}
}