Yin et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation drought and causal cascade effects of drivers in the Yellow River Basin's water conservation areas

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Water and Climate Change
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-17
• Authors: Zhenliang Yin, Rong Li, Rui Zhu, Zexia Chen, Xinzhu Wen, Lejie Li, Fulong Chen
• DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2026.323

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates vegetation drought in the Yellow River Water Conservation Area (YRWC) from 2001 to 2022 using the TVPDI index, identifying precipitation as the primary driver and analyzing the spatial heterogeneity of cascading environmental effects.

Objective

• To examine the temporal trends, nonlinear causality, cascading pathways, and spatial heterogeneity of vegetation drought within the Yellow River Water Conservation Area.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Water Conservation Area (YRWC).
• Temporal Scale: 2001–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Temperature–Vegetation–Precipitation Drought Index (TVPDI), Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR).
• Data sources: Environmental variables including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Precipitation (PRE), Relative Humidity (RH), Temperature (TEM), Available Water Content (AWC), and Actual Evapotranspiration (ET).

Main Results

• Drought Trend: Vegetation drought exhibited a slight alleviating trend of $0.003$ per decade.
• Primary Driver: Precipitation (PRE) was the dominant internal factor influencing TVPDI, with a total effect coefficient of $0.92$.
• External Driver Effects: Structural equation modeling revealed positive total effects from Relative Humidity ($+0.20$) and Actual Evapotranspiration ($+0.14$), and a negative effect from Temperature ($-0.11$).
• Spatial Dynamics: Driver effects showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity across the study area.

Contributions

• The study advances the understanding of vegetation drought by quantifying the cascading effects of multiple drivers and mapping their spatial variability, providing a scientific basis for ecological restoration and water resource management in the YRWC.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yin2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Yin, Zhenliang and Li, Rong and Zhu, Rui and Chen, Zexia and Wen, Xinzhu and Li, Lejie and Chen, Fulong},
  title = {Spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation drought and causal cascade effects of drivers in the Yellow River Basin's water conservation areas},
  journal = {Journal of Water and Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.2166/wcc.2026.323},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.323}
}