Hote et al. (2026) An integrated framework for strengthening local agriculture drought management

Identification

• Journal: Water Policy
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-08
• Authors: Hassan Haren Hote, Toshio Koike, Hiroyuki Tsutsui, Mohamed Rasmy Abdul Wahid
• DOI: 10.2166/wp.2026.144

Research Groups

• International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), Tsukuba, Japan.
• National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo, Japan.

Short Summary

This study proposes an integrated framework for agricultural drought management in Balochistan, Pakistan, by combining a district-level socioeconomic vulnerability index with ecohydrological simulations. The findings demonstrate that linking scientific outputs, such as vegetation water content, with socioeconomic data can significantly enhance localized disaster risk reduction and food security planning.

Objective

• To bridge the gap between natural science and social policy by identifying cause-and-effect interlinkages between poverty-driven socioeconomic vulnerabilities and scientific hazard exposure simulations.
• To develop a socioeconomic vulnerability index and demonstrate the utility of ecohydrological variables for district-level drought monitoring.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: District-level analysis within the Balochistan province of Pakistan, with a specific focus on the southwestern districts of Awaran, Khuzdar, Kech, and Panjgur.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of historical and recent periods (2006–2010 and 2014–2023), specifically targeting the 2018–2020 drought event.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Land and Vegetation Data Assimilation System (CLVDAS), which integrates a land surface model, a dynamic vegetation model, and a data assimilation scheme to simulate ecohydrological variables.
• Data sources:
  • Socioeconomic: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) survey (2019–2020) and the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report (2024).
  • Meteorological/Hydrological: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) for precipitation data and satellite-based microwave remote sensing for land surface hydrology and vegetation dynamics.
• Indicators: A Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SEVI) was developed using eight indicators across four components: poverty (MPI headcount, Food Insecurity Experience Scale), education (literacy, out-of-school children), health (prenatal consultations, diarrhea prevalence), and standard of living (mobile/internet access).

Main Results

• Vulnerability Mapping: The SEVI identified high-vulnerability clusters in districts such as Khuzdar (score: 0.83) and Awaran (score: 0.70), while the provincial capital, Quetta, showed low vulnerability (0.23).
• Ecohydrological Trends: CLVDAS simulations of Vegetation Water Content (VWC) showed a consistent below-average trend (negative z-scores) between 2017 and 2022, accurately reflecting the 2018–2020 drought period.
• Agricultural Impact: Provincial wheat yields (kg/ha) showed a significant decline from 2017 to 2020, correlating with the simulated VWC deficits.
• Hydrological Dynamics: Analysis revealed a clear time lag between precipitation, land-surface soil moisture, root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), and VWC. Notably, RZSM was found to decrease at a faster rate than it increases, indicating a "soil moisture memory" that prolongs drought conditions.
• Food Security Linkage: A positive relationship was observed between high SEVI scores and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES); for instance, Awaran reported a 35.43% rate of moderate-to-severe food insecurity during the drought.

Contributions

• Transdisciplinary Framework: Moves beyond conventional precipitation-only indices (like SPI) by integrating land surface hydrology and vegetation growth dynamics with social policy data.
• Localized Decision Support: Provides a practical method for district-level authorities to utilize scientific simulation outputs for targeted interventions, such as placing cereal stocks in high-vulnerability zones.
• Methodological Integration: Demonstrates how "creeping disasters" like drought can be managed by quantifying the disaster risk-poverty nexus through combined hazard exposure and vulnerability assessments.

Funding

• This research was conducted as part of a PhD Program in Disaster Management funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

Citation

@article{Hote2026integrated,
  author = {Hote, Hassan Haren and Koike, Toshio and Tsutsui, Hiroyuki and Wahid, Mohamed Rasmy Abdul},
  title = {An integrated framework for strengthening local agriculture drought management},
  journal = {Water Policy},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.2166/wp.2026.144},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2026.144}
}

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