López et al. (2026) Climate change threats to urban water supply in the Higueras river basin, Huánuco, Peru

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Identification

• Journal: Water Practice & Technology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-23
• Authors: Javier López, Juan Cabrera, Pedro Rau, Luis Zapana-Churata
• DOI: 10.2166/wpt.2026.465

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates future water availability in the Higueras River Basin (Peru) by integrating climate projections, hydrological modeling, and urban demand, predicting a transition to moderate or high water stress by 2065.

Objective

• To evaluate future changes in water availability and the resulting water stress in the Higueras River Basin under different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Higueras River Basin, Huánuco, Peru (Andean watershed).
• Temporal Scale: 2003–2070 (Simulation period: 2003–2019; Projection periods: 2020–2036, 2037–2053, and 2054–2070).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 22 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs), GR2M hydrological model, and the Water Stress Index (WSI).
• Data sources: CMIP5 climate projections (with Bias Correction), population growth projections (2.59% annual rate), and per-capita water demand (220 L/person/day).

Main Results

• Short term (2020–2036): Water surpluses are projected.
• Medium term (2037–2053): Water deficits emerge during August and September, reaching up to $0.31\text{ m}^3/\text{s}$.
• Long term (2054–2070): Deficits intensify from July to September, with a peak deficit of $1.10\text{ m}^3/\text{s}$ in August under the RCP8.5 scenario.
• Water Stress: The WSI indicates a shift from low to moderate/high water stress after 2065, particularly under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Contributions

• The study addresses a gap in Andean watershed research by creating an integrated framework that combines climate projections, hydrological modeling, and urban water demand to assess future water security for cities reliant on surface water.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{López2026Climate,
  author = {López, Javier and Cabrera, Juan and Rau, Pedro and Zapana-Churata, Luis},
  title = {Climate change threats to urban water supply in the Higueras river basin, Huánuco, Peru},
  journal = {Water Practice & Technology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.2166/wpt.2026.465},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2026.465}
}